TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,554 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01fc…f431backed Yes26c12,916$3,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,326.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa970…d60dbacked No72c10,781$7,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,052.851241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c6…c30dbacked Yes68c10,396$7,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,024.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe075…a98cbacked Yes24c7,274$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6090…39b4backed No75c5,963$4,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b6…3f0ebacked No74c5,488$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.64475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9427…9df8backed Yes18c5,467$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ab…ed02backed Yes28c5,410$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…d6f7backed No77c5,219$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No58c5,219$3,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a52…cecebacked Yes29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf880…135dbacked Yes24c4,813$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1791…65f0backed No77c4,380$3,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes40c3,822$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.113756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3f7…baaebacked No72c3,762$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No17c3,633$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.713721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad3f…c749backed Yes27c3,467$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8f7…ab46backed Yes24c3,141$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.2730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes11c2,913$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.370%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d4…0acebacked Yes31c2,714$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes27c2,290$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.1110%0 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x36f4…3e14backed Yes22c2,223$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.37742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed Yes50c2,018$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.521833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes4c1,827$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.68119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes6c1,766$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.611330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes22c1,599$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.324544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…77d6backed Yes22c1,478$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.24440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d8…74f1backed Yes35c1,443$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18fc…2f91backed No71c1,346$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa735…72e0backed Yes23c1,305$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes16c1,256$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.292213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No71c1,123$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.19645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb714…a191backed No77c954.79$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No68c948.85$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a54…ac2ebacked Yes27c939.63$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbd…7693backed Yes32c932.78$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Yes28c927.92$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.871625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f07…b0d3backed No78c907.06$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+159.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No72c843.85$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.092944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No65c843.31$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.428052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2ab0…3b33backed Yes10c822.64$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa57a…66d6backed Yes23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+71.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes22c741.77$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.677663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b6f…246dbacked Yes44c712.02$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58dd…6ff5backed Yes25c700$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No58c679.49$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.7823841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No70c634.03$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.89650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c633.57$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee8…3866backed Yes26c606.51$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a54…64e0backed Yes17c605.18$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c1…3176backed Yes24c600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f9…849abacked Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ea…c20abacked Yes23c598.58$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No2c596.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.93848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes20c568.51$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes16c561.05$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.077621.1%16 W · 60 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes20c559.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb21…51bebacked Yes18c554.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+51.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6306…852abacked Yes25c530$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No73c528.85$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes9c523.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2919336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf100…a5fcbacked Yes9c519$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba5…8d60backed No76c468.18$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed No70c430.43$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes4c417.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.751625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18e…5c5cbacked Yes17c409.94$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e0…0cdbbacked No75c400.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c51…087cbacked Yes15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd541…26bfbacked Yes16c379.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc077…3579backed Yes18c341.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed No41c335.55$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.071250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6364…09a8backed No66c331.53$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes23c326.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0f…6fc4backed Yes15c293.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc803…3789backed Yes15c293.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfea…c9febacked Yes10c290$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c97…035fbacked Yes6c289$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8790…b44ebacked No70c265$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+442%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe224…1f5bbacked Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…a3bcbacked No60c248.73$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.491145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb373…4280backed Yes16c246$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb60c…72f6backed No65c243.59$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.491984.2%16 W · 3 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+53.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No66c237.92$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…a710backed No70c235$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked Yes46c226.64$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.691241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+59.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…821fbacked No34c225$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.75837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes15c223.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5713422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8dc…c1d7backed No70c222$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.64100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+123%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea01…c767backed Yes30c220$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c29…271ebacked No73c219.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…96b1backed Yes17c217.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4d…19efbacked Yes49c202.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c55…df98backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6181…ad60backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e7…47aabacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df5…db5abacked Yes20c195$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c61…31e3backed Yes52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6938…f3a4backed Yes52c192.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.