Token Launches · resolved market
Rainbow airdrop in Q2 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3635e130d09f6aba2e02210d218fa488a7bb121bed02db2e5ec274c8b59ed5c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 35c | 1,832$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 15c | 1,069$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 12c | 896.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed No | 26c | 394.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 257.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 66c | 219.49$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…37d9backed No | 19c | 205$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed Yes | 42c | 122$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 24c | 101.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 19c | 101$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 42c | 76.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 14c | 75.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 44c | 61.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 32c | 59.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 33c | 55.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 45c | 52.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…d9c9backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 22c | 49.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…691ebacked No | 31c | 37.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…05ebbacked No | 63c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…172bbacked No | 51c | 22.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb037…dee2backed No | 66c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…721fbacked No | 66c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5442…7765backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…3616backed No | 76c | 16.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…44c5backed No | 78c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…6ebdbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rainbow airdrop in Q2 2025?this page
- Astaria airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
- Base airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
- Jumper airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
- Linea airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
- Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
- Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.