TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Missouri Stateof Missouri State, Middle Tennessee
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$859,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$861,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $859,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Missouri State55c529,000$292,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236,580.712549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Middle Tennessee44c308,814$136,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136,847.4975651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Middle Tennessee46c107,527$49,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,462.2637749.6%187 W · 190 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Middle Tennessee45c50,000$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,5007944.3%35 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Middle Tennessee43c44,918$19,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,505.9932745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Missouri State60c24,401$14,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,870.32948.3%14 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Middle Tennessee44c20,410$9,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,074.262748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Middle Tennessee46c18,000$8,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,19011653.4%62 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Middle Tennessee38c16,764$6,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,364.517048.2%82 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Missouri State58c14,483$8,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Missouri State57c13,966$7,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,005.355957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Missouri State57c12,127$6,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,243.4981847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5df…2f2dbacked Missouri State54c11,809$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,408.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Missouri State55c11,739$6,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,332.4630949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Missouri State57c11,400$6,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,869.8129249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Middle Tennessee44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Middle Tennessee44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4008149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Middle Tennessee45c8,528$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.811,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Middle Tennessee43c8,114$3,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,512.452,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Middle Tennessee42c6,788$2,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,861.818331.3%26 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Missouri State57c6,537$3,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.815539.4%61 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Middle Tennessee43c6,032$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.5385947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6eb…3fcdbacked Missouri State58c5,852$3,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,457.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Middle Tennessee47c5,597$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…df32backed Middle Tennessee45c5,200$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x883f…aad2backed Middle Tennessee50c5,026$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cf…e0d1backed Missouri State56c4,900$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…986ebacked Missouri State56c4,800$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf725…6dccbacked Missouri State56c4,700$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b2…13ddbacked Middle Tennessee45c4,495$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4e…1c31backed Missouri State55c4,370$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba90…12bfbacked Middle Tennessee44c4,366$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc916…f94cbacked Middle Tennessee46c4,300$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6660…e942backed Middle Tennessee46c4,200$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…c4efbacked Missouri State55c3,800$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Middle Tennessee41c3,747$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.8540541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Middle Tennessee44c3,600$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.976947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Middle Tennessee45c3,500$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.9813452.2%70 W · 64 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…06f8backed Middle Tennessee45c3,150$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Middle Tennessee45c2,887$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.3763243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75f…5b1ebacked Middle Tennessee45c2,885$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…a3bcbacked Missouri State55c2,835$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9665…e721backed Middle Tennessee47c2,750$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Missouri State53c2,750$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Missouri State56c2,446$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.6368440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eda…c3b7backed Middle Tennessee45c2,178$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc97e…5340backed Middle Tennessee45c2,011$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd138…70edbacked Middle Tennessee45c2,011$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Middle Tennessee41c2,006$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.6962843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc884…13d3backed Middle Tennessee45c1,810$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d5…e6d2backed Missouri State56c1,810$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d46…8029backed Middle Tennessee45c1,810$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…828cbacked Missouri State56c1,809$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.14520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5a3…23d3backed Missouri State56c1,809$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a4…f1e8backed Middle Tennessee45c1,809$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Middle Tennessee39c1,794$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.046251.6%32 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe3…5a21backed Middle Tennessee46c1,790$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.4940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d85…43d8backed Missouri State56c1,790$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e84…2b5dbacked Middle Tennessee46c1,787$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfced…2523backed Missouri State56c1,787$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9126…a984backed Missouri State56c1,649$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34c2…07babacked Missouri State56c1,646$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Middle Tennessee1c1,582$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82814.9%4 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Middle Tennessee43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Missouri State55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6756465.6%42 W · 22 L+14.8wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+58.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Middle Tennessee47c1,468$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6907553.3%40 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09d0…743dbacked Missouri State56c1,400$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Missouri State25c1,292$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.2810448.1%50 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Missouri State56c1,286$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.711947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Middle Tennessee45c1,222$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Middle Tennessee44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52812750.4%64 W · 63 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01d7…5fd2backed Missouri State67c1,195$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Missouri State53c1,180$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.611844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099a…236cbacked Missouri State53c1,178$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Middle Tennessee45c1,167$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.1519051.6%98 W · 92 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5127…8507backed Missouri State56c1,146$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd724…b805backed Missouri State56c1,120$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.673565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Missouri State55c1,078$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.6855350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Middle Tennessee6c1,059$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.548629.1%25 W · 61 L+15.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+361.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Missouri State55c1,000$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.725629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Missouri State55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45016945.6%77 W · 92 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e7…8f26backed Middle Tennessee75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcc…5e0abacked Missouri State53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Middle Tennessee44c999.97$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed0…b051backed Middle Tennessee44c900$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.923636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e0…4659backed Missouri State56c880$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Middle Tennessee47c875.14$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.3238450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1070…03b6backed Missouri State56c870$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Missouri State58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.077146.5%33 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked Middle Tennessee53c842.96$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Middle Tennessee51c798$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.9813548.9%66 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Missouri State69c797.1$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.11315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-79.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Middle Tennessee44c749.99$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.511436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Missouri State58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.6616839.9%67 W · 101 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Missouri State54c661$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.150358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa492…d264backed Middle Tennessee46c603.8$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked Missouri State55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2705856.9%33 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+36.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Middle Tennessee44c600$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2644151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Middle Tennessee45c577.78$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8a…4a02backed Middle Tennessee45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.