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AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$483,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$472,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked No16c44,728$7,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,198.755016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…745cbacked No0c19,551$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes76c14,696$11,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No13c11,157$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.172330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6602…089fbacked No6c9,383$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.48250%0 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No28c8,898$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,451.544818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No7c8,877$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.732429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No15c8,297$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.767231.9%23 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c8,109$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.956311.3%8 W · 623 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No31c8,066$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.328815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No42c7,781$3,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,248.121921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No13c6,592$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.775012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No7c6,466$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.051398.6%12 W · 127 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x929d…7ee3backed No10c5,073$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.81633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No19c4,776$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.0310126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No16c4,697$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.588042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No12c3,897$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.516145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c3,725$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.331,3686.8%93 W · 1,275 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No15c3,248$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.349142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No8c3,231$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.2748138%183 W · 298 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No12c3,127$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.1620118.9%38 W · 163 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No10c2,873$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.413647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c2,605$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.053042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No14c2,563$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.7617924%43 W · 136 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes54c2,461$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No17c2,310$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.496547.7%31 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c2,165$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.052590%0 W · 259 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x779d…169fbacked Yes79c2,100$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No1c2,027$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7622019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No16c1,873$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.03634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa87d…e4bfbacked No9c1,798$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No10c1,660$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.738846.6%41 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No19c1,555$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.114736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c1,477$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.352792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c1,365$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1721813.3%29 W · 189 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No11c1,296$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.783243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes59c1,271$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…5c1bbacked Yes80c1,200$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+126.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No4c1,200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.464177.4%31 W · 386 L-25.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-68.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No10c1,145$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.222977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No16c1,101$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3115047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes42c1,093$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.149041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed Yes23c1,050$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.41225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c1,011$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3326312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No18c902.94$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No6c900.28$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61600%0 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No20c823.84$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.432536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No21c772.3$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.283834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes79c717.89$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5811855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No12c691.42$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.988741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No11c667.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.111010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes19c576$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.294045%18 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked Yes25c576$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.961435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08dd…2555backed Yes80c574.07$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.88683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No3c566.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.63330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No12c555.27$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.085026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No9c546.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.247041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x384c…2688backed No16c525.54$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed Yes29c525$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3721323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No9c508.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.541723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes51c500$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.58341%34 W · 49 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8810…33b2backed No20c489.55$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc8…197abacked No33c487.3$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No12c483.67$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.695942.4%25 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba99…039abacked Yes72c435.72$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No12c402$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2416619.3%32 W · 134 L-21.4wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed No11c401.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.342437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed No3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.29040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6452…616dbacked Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No4c385.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7925632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No14c370.16$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.213713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c358.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8840712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No34c350.31$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.284146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd325…a3bcbacked No18c345$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No5c337$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No6c325.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.544415.9%7 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No4c309.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c303.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3811124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No10c300.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.283231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3811…1d6dbacked No6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes73c299.99$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dfa…7f64backed Yes75c287.02$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a07…1d4dbacked Yes69c282$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No29c280$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe9ff…ae88backed Yes76c261.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.64475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…ae05backed No33c260$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb8d…cc4dbacked Yes67c260$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No16c258.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.295221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No5c256.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.687638.2%29 W · 47 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No25c232.69$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.115151%26 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No16c229.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No5c217.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No6c209$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.022133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Yes55c182.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed No23c181.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.443514.3%5 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No17c179.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b65…e6bfbacked No22c175.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes68c169.81$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.081963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Yes59c165.55$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No13c158.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.324055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.