TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$505,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$384,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes15c89,089$13,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,235.035016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c86,056$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.392920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes10c30,363$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.738815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes6c27,207$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.932722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6602…089fbacked Yes11c13,576$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.41250%0 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes4c12,740$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.934818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c8…678ebacked Yes20c11,508$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c10,324$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.626291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes4c8,613$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes65c7,634$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…5f25backed Yes12c7,549$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c6,300$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.22003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c5,457$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.710126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes1c3,980$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.01100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c3,845$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.661,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked Yes10c3,623$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Yes43c3,247$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.841921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x795d…bdf8backed Yes2c3,086$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes18c3,014$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.251421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes10c2,938$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.15012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes58c2,824$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.112722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes8c2,644$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20511723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c2,495$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.053042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes16c2,481$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.141533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa0…e20fbacked Yes3c2,468$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes4c2,468$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.531388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…725abacked Yes4c2,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997b…641bbacked Yes7c2,226$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-59.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes17c2,109$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5814421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes20c1,965$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.5919818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,961$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.252560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes59c1,849$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes2c1,800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No76c1,763$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.916448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes1c1,724$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b6…492bbacked Yes5c1,571$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,536$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.912792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed Yes7c1,400$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.42437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes33c1,351$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.231127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb465…0d8dbacked Yes3c1,300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes9c1,300$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.274157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No73c1,188$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.737943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes5c1,148$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes15c1,095$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.93537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes20c1,058$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked Yes9c1,050$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked Yes3c999.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc180…da11backed Yes2c978.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3e6…9139backed Yes2c972.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.421315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes14c940.92$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9215047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa87d…e4bfbacked No49c854.94$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No78c812.2$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.183834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes10c775.6$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.781540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c774.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.14731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed No23c750$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.11225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c720.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.04790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes14c718$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7811855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03b6…2c93backed Yes14c709.69$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes15c678.21$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6117824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed Yes9c654.21$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.881323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes3c629.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes4c620.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.543925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes15c617.2$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.69634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes19c611.05$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes16c604.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6121035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes8c602.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b13…a610backed Yes22c590.86$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x724b…81bdbacked Yes9c586.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c570.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.15420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa30…47ccbacked Yes7c567.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ec…2631backed Yes18c540.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd0…b9a1backed Yes14c533.28$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c531.31$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8940712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes27c526.5$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.586753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x396b…b871backed Yes2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0948…61a4backed Yes8c525$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc979…4c88backed Yes15c519.74$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a89…b1c2backed Yes7c507.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2508241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes7c499.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352450%12 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes16c461.17$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.882850%14 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes4c430$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.421502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes18c400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes15c399.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.397332.9%24 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c8a…d6b2backed Yes18c374.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes8c370.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304415.9%7 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes14c349.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.172642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes11c337.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.371741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes44c332.64$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.671010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked No30c321$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.34045%18 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7340…4e09backed Yes18c318.54$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.921315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c307.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7211124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed No79c299.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes20c299.32$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.323713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197c…b89abacked Yes7c298.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes7c294.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb76c…992fbacked Yes10c292.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2134…7ddcbacked Yes8c276.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5855…b7eabacked Yes19c265.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.