AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa10d84a527e0f0dd6701099be4dbae6399f73607621e9d1d299536a6717053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 15c | 89,089$13,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,235.03 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 86,056$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 10c | 30,363$3,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.73 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 6c | 27,207$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.93 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 11c | 13,576$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.41 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 4c | 12,740$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.93 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…678ebacked Yes | 20c | 11,508$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 10,324$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 4c | 8,613$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 65c | 7,634$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…5f25backed Yes | 12c | 7,549$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 6,300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 5,457$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.7 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,980$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 3,845$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.66 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 10c | 3,623$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Yes | 43c | 3,247$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.84 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…bdf8backed Yes | 2c | 3,086$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 18c | 3,014$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 2,938$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.1 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 58c | 2,824$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.11 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 8c | 2,644$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,495$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,481$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…e20fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,468$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 2,468$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 4c | 2,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,226$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 2,109$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.58 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,965$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.59 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,961$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 59c | 1,849$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 1,763$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.91 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 1c | 1,724$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…492bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,571$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,536$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 33c | 1,351$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 1,188$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.73 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 5c | 1,148$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,095$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 20c | 1,058$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,050$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc180…da11backed Yes | 2c | 978.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…9139backed Yes | 2c | 972.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 940.92$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…e4bfbacked No | 49c | 854.94$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 812.2$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.18 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 10c | 775.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 774.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 23c | 750$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 720.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 14c | 718$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…2c93backed Yes | 14c | 709.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 678.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed Yes | 9c | 654.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 3c | 629.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 4c | 620.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 15c | 617.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 19c | 611.05$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 16c | 604.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 602.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…a610backed Yes | 22c | 590.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…81bdbacked Yes | 9c | 586.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 570.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…47ccbacked Yes | 7c | 567.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…2631backed Yes | 18c | 540.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…b9a1backed Yes | 14c | 533.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 531.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 27c | 526.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…b871backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0948…61a4backed Yes | 8c | 525$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4c88backed Yes | 15c | 519.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…b1c2backed Yes | 7c | 507.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 16c | 461.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 430$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes | 18c | 400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 15c | 399.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…d6b2backed Yes | 18c | 374.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 8c | 370.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 14c | 349.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 11c | 337.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 44c | 332.64$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 30c | 321$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.3 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed Yes | 18c | 318.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 307.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed No | 79c | 299.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 20c | 299.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…b89abacked Yes | 7c | 298.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 7c | 294.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76c…992fbacked Yes | 10c | 292.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7ddcbacked Yes | 8c | 276.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5855…b7eabacked Yes | 19c | 265.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.