AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32039e312d108f4bc3f15bedf5e73edb9a728c9fd338497d0ca2d81c97afbbc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 51,249$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 30,139$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 22,797$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 0c | 16,977$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 16,635$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 15,685$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 14,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 0c | 14,085$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,652$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Yes | 0c | 12,292$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…2bb2backed Yes | 2c | 6,854$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 2c | 6,684$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 3c | 6,666$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.03 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…5f25backed Yes | 0c | 4,597$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,204$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.91 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 4c | 3,645$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.91 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…d0d1backed Yes | 0c | 2,921$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 1c | 2,879$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…a1d7backed Yes | 0c | 2,579$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…bdf8backed Yes | 4c | 2,335$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,580$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,495$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 3c | 1,488$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,355$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 1,215$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ae…1399backed Yes | 3c | 933.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 854.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed Yes | 8c | 702.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 2c | 657.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 14c | 609.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 527.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…ff64backed Yes | 23c | 429.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…dcffbacked No | 76c | 311.31$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 9c | 281.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 266.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…8beebacked Yes | 4c | 261.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 204.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…5cf0backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 29c | 139.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…7ceebacked Yes | 22c | 111.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…4ac1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…00f3backed Yes | 22c | 68.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…3586backed Yes | 19c | 58.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 66c | 50.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 47.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…7b1dbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 28.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…c097backed No | 76c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 72c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.