Token Launches · resolved market
Squid FDV above $50M one day after launch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be490cecb1a90934c45c763fa57739319e25ce5079662d56d4a40437143dbcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed No | 3c | 3,031$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 20c | 2,355$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.31 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 861$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 17c | 630.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…8690backed No | 11c | 451$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 264.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 14c | 213.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 15c | 140.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 133.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked No | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked Yes | 78c | 73.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 77c | 70.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…a390backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…3f53backed Yes | 75c | 66.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…6bbdbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3574…30a3backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…600fbacked Yes | 75c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 80c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Squid FDV above $50M one day after launchthis page
- Squid FDV above $100M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $200M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $300M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $30M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $400M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $40M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $600M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $75M one day after launchYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.