Token Launches · resolved market
Squid FDV above $40M one day after launch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0182859b15ba14d5175e779cb0780d28f7d11bef81b12ec0ffdd157dcd5ae039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed No | 5c | 1,620$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…1027backed No | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 3c | 418.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…3b2dbacked No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 12c | 392.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 9c | 362.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 274.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 67c | 230.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 7c | 155.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 106$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 78.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 32c | 77.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…a390backed Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 78c | 65.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Yes | 78c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Squid FDV above $40M one day after launchthis page
- Squid FDV above $100M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $200M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $300M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $30M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $400M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $50M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $600M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $75M one day after launchYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.