Token Launches · resolved market
Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1dadbfa0adb67ce67561751873b8ff6b8db6e7d4dd6e093bdf973a9ad591f56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f28…ba03backed Yes | 67c | 8,962$6,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,929.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed No | 18c | 2,758$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…1277backed Yes | 75c | 2,125$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 27c | 2,050$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.99 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed No | 44c | 2,010$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e1a8backed No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 16c | 1,945$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.52 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 7c | 1,888$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 18c | 1,800$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…6bbcbacked Yes | 69c | 1,483$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,370$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 36c | 1,350$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.59 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…961fbacked No | 45c | 1,173$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…2ad3backed Yes | 77c | 1,096$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 36c | 1,000$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…85c9backed Yes | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 63c | 900$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…a292backed No | 56c | 720$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 80c | 600$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 30c | 595.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.25 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 38c | 568.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.52 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…8690backed No | 6c | 550$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 47c | 542.39$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.92 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked No | 51c | 537.19$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 525$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…8c4ebacked Yes | 41c | 500$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 24c | 461.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…ba27backed Yes | 49c | 428.75$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 6c | 360$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 74c | 355.01$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…d6f6backed No | 58c | 305$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 61c | 253.56$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 64c | 224.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 10c | 221$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…a121backed No | 67c | 217.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad4…1704backed No | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 143.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed No | 11c | 137.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 133.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…c522backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a4…8044backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…3d8dbacked No | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 76c | 84.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…87b2backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ca51backed No | 32c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 52c | 55.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…cfe0backed Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3574…30a3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…f37abacked Yes | 64c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked No | 40c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Squid FDV above $75M one day after launchthis page
- Squid FDV above $100M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $200M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $300M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $30M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $400M one day after launchNo won
- Squid FDV above $40M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $50M one day after launchYes won
- Squid FDV above $600M one day after launchNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.