TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57e4…835ebacked No60c3,500$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1007759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55c2…a8c7backed No63c3,358$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.721513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-79.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed Yes42c1,636$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.768440.5%34 W · 50 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f28…ba03backed Yes26c1,631$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.47580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+74.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed No45c1,583$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes59c1,536$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.581942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No46c1,500$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69615539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5316…0906backed Yes51c1,445$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.455974.6%44 W · 15 L+12.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No13c1,421$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.698327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5117…8c4ebacked Yes40c1,408$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No13c1,200$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.81541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05ff…6bbcbacked Yes60c1,175$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked Yes37c1,100$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.993256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No11c1,022$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14013131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed No50c834.33$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41413134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes42c762.05$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.5114335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9763…a292backed No74c743.94$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.941471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+52.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc70…e75dbacked No72c700$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed No65c700$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.425851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed No52c565.79$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.726246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes48c500.21$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4413023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed No35c371.53$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.722744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No28c346.29$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.731618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No35c343.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.126123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf0…c5c4backed No64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No11c290$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No30c278.36$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.751450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c23…e487backed No48c247.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.81450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No10c202$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21107.3%8 W · 102 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-82.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ad4…1704backed No66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323050%15 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10419543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No65c189.97$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4120551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No54c188.05$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.553729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No35c177.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.438854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa32…f6b4backed Yes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff9b…d477backed Yes57c158.73$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.251668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd1…42d2backed Yes34c152$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ec…05fdbacked No56c149.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.57147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No29c148.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f52…6f28backed No17c146.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3660%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes56c146.37$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes54c146$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.164755.3%26 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed No22c138.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.944122%9 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No45c127.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1346320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No47c123.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9919336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes70c122.39$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.398744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8004…cd61backed Yes30c119.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.661963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+55.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No54c114$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.561513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-80.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cd2…c545backed No14c110$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58b…51fdbacked No61c106.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.743253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No40c105$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x354c…66b2backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+107.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ea…f2f0backed No61c99.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No32c99.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.725650%28 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes53c99.68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b69…66b0backed Yes42c95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.84337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf43…aa35backed Yes61c92.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No39c90$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No23c89.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.912917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x321d…ed56backed Yes53c87.58$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.047346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked No43c73.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No78c64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.922626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.410047%47 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes55c56.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3916247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f14…d00abacked Yes54c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed Yes46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3511942%50 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes46c50.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.392630.8%8 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.134721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0503…db3dbacked Yes53c47.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.284219%8 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No78c46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.884330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c44.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5621240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48db…5ff5backed No52c43.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.433243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No50c40.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.371752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da8…ec45backed Yes62c32.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.39785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9f…6f68backed No49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7f…6413backed Yes54c26.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793d…2c6fbacked No50c25.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.621637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…071ebacked Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67418.9%14 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.