TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jaysof Yankees, Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$912,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$929,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $912,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Blue Jays42c318,006$133,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184,443.538043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Blue Jays43c163,107$70,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,970.811963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yankees58c155,281$89,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,757.1125453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Yankees57c102,612$58,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,488.959462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Yankees58c80,264$46,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,553.3413246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Yankees58c60,000$34,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,499.9653150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yankees49c56,996$28,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,082.621,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Yankees56c53,788$30,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,222.269146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yankees58c48,440$28,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,095.436855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Blue Jays42c48,212$20,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,011.51,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Yankees16c40,756$6,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,403.7217136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yankees58c24,772$14,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,367.891,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yankees58c24,454$14,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,183.126660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Blue Jays42c21,117$8,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,247.847651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Yankees58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,60026355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yankees58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,599.9155053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Blue Jays44c17,726$7,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,978.961,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Yankees1c14,812$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.940629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Blue Jays48c13,518$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,068.47341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Blue Jays43c10,904$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,216.6111544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1eb…f5b9backed Yankees1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Yankees31c8,444$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.892,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a27…b9ddbacked Blue Jays42c7,846$3,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,550.681553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Blue Jays69c6,738$4,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.9948254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Yankees0c6,430$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.98762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb006…4eb8backed Yankees58c6,290$3,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,648.22356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34f7…28bfbacked Blue Jays69c5,798$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yankees1c5,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.67041.4%29 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9502…994abacked Blue Jays42c5,127$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.74580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+53.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Blue Jays42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Blue Jays41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.9956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Blue Jays72c4,621$3,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.4578445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yankees54c4,600$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.224143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Yankees3c4,091$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Yankees57c3,855$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.216547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays65c3,555$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.921,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb370…9f2bbacked Yankees58c3,496$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ff…252ebacked Blue Jays42c3,400$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9721346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blue Jays68c3,392$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.221,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Blue Jays59c3,229$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.1414153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Blue Jays42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Blue Jays57c2,899$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.8922546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yankees0c2,727$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Blue Jays57c2,639$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.815959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yankees57c2,639$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.092,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e62…ec52backed Yankees58c2,600$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Blue Jays43c2,500$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4257139.4%28 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c27…867ebacked Yankees57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Blue Jays41c2,400$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.9895850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Blue Jays69c2,143$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.481963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3add…2cfdbacked Yankees2c2,050$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yankees57c2,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15022142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yankees58c2,000$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16430151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yankees57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.997548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Blue Jays47c1,887$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0006,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Yankees1c1,850$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbf…fdcabacked Yankees59c1,805$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Blue Jays42c1,769$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.8711551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75f…5b1ebacked Yankees58c1,680$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.95425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70f9…e036backed Yankees12c1,639$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.351070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd3…f7d3backed Blue Jays42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8703135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd325…a3bcbacked Blue Jays43c1,463$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yankees28c1,443$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.1520523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blue Jays58c1,396$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.888,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Blue Jays43c1,395$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.3563052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Blue Jays44c1,392$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.291,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yankees49c1,381$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.8796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Blue Jays68c1,303$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.851681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yankees53c1,300$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.992754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce0…6633backed Blue Jays42c1,230$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Blue Jays77c1,176$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.6576456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Blue Jays72c1,170$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.596440.6%26 W · 38 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Yankees57c1,163$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.791,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Yankees58c1,036$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.8218157.5%104 W · 77 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Blue Jays49c1,031$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.138751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yankees7c999.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511838.1%45 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Blue Jays41c974.09$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.7124040.8%98 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yankees4c838.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.531735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43da…7457backed Yankees44c825.1$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yankees22c717.87$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Blue Jays42c700$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4061,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Blue Jays43c697.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.6727733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Yankees58c678$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.243375.8%25 W · 8 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+40.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Yankees57c666$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.621618.8%3 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.33per pick52cpaid-68.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4b49…64dabacked Yankees16c641.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5874…a9d7backed Blue Jays43c606.19$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.5324953%132 W · 117 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yankees9c600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5116725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Yankees57c600$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3426833.8%23 W · 45 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Blue Jays41c600$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35450843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Yankees57c549.98$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.495451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…ee42backed Blue Jays42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9200…46f9backed Blue Jays67c495.21$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Blue Jays41c486$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.7444643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Blue Jays43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1232852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yankees58c450$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26114949%73 W · 76 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09c4…40cdbacked Yankees23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010154.5%55 W · 46 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yankees58c431.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Blue Jays42c416.66$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6616053.1%85 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Blue Jays63c413.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.944,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yankees58c407$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.061,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.