Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378d1c879e2531607fe0534003c2a2ec02719276c44ca6a660a3e2a9f4e6a0d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $716,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $722,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $716,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb6a…9836backed No | 0c | 112,912$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed No | 0c | 38,665$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…b52bbacked No | 1c | 30,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 1c | 20,727$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 17,982$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 0c | 8,175$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…faa4backed No | 0c | 4,802$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…dbc6backed No | 4c | 3,782$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed No | 2c | 3,622$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 6c | 3,614$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…e426backed No | 1c | 3,518$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 3,006$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 2c | 2,921$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 2,722$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 3c | 2,685$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 2c | 2,647$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 1c | 2,520$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 2,252$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed No | 1c | 2,246$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2c…c5aebacked No | 0c | 2,152$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 10c | 2,091$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 1c | 2,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 3c | 1,815$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked No | 24c | 1,455$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f6…c4e7backed No | 3c | 1,028$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 945.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…b90fbacked No | 9c | 859.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 856.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked No | 3c | 740.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fd4fbacked No | 16c | 642.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed No | 2c | 603.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…8b6fbacked No | 2c | 514.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 15c | 487.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 12c | 427$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…667abacked No | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…b441backed No | 5c | 277.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked No | 14c | 266$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 8c | 244.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 10c | 213.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…ddffbacked No | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed No | 19c | 184.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 18c | 171.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 10c | 161$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 6c | 157.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 17c | 156.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 14c | 148$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed No | 15c | 141.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…a5e6backed No | 10c | 139$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 13c | 100.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed No | 20c | 70.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe402…76c9backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.