Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b34288c919db8afc4fada0267b385d2a3409c4db4185765c9f72836765a3f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $546,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $387,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $546,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb6a…9836backed Yes | 0c | 124,329$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0981…5199backed Yes | 0c | 62,027$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…95aebacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 31,259$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed Yes | 0c | 28,067$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 11,907$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…709dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,536$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…b8ecbacked Yes | 0c | 7,285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed Yes | 0c | 6,468$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…9bccbacked Yes | 1c | 6,322$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 3c | 5,820$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…a978backed Yes | 1c | 5,701$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,452$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…faa7backed Yes | 1c | 5,152$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 1c | 4,397$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…0d7dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,285$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 11c | 3,575$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…c0efbacked Yes | 0c | 2,999$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,768$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,752$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,625$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,614$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…b5c7backed Yes | 0c | 2,605$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,303$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,231$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…fe63backed Yes | 1c | 2,192$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…d7cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…43bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,977$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…4a92backed Yes | 1c | 1,947$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,925$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,836$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,730$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…4c47backed Yes | 4c | 1,632$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,622$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…bb8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,532$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…8f62backed Yes | 12c | 1,433$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…535ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,368$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab5…8a96backed Yes | 3c | 1,255$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 14c | 915.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64c…6120backed Yes | 2c | 818.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 15c | 797.78$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…af39backed Yes | 9c | 793.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…18ffbacked Yes | 15c | 721$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…9847backed Yes | 2c | 679.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 13c | 578.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 577.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 350.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 9c | 258$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…0056backed Yes | 14c | 232.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 8c | 215.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 19c | 130.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc988…ae8dbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.