Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x547efe535c45e582fd8fdcbfbad481e2bc70094e60b8518159585c549405a53a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $705,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $579,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $705,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8db7…45efbacked Yes | 0c | 199,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…95aebacked Yes | 0c | 64,682$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes | 1c | 30,599$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 0c | 22,011$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…3f88backed Yes | 0c | 19,831$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 16,875$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 1c | 16,279$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…c969backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…cd18backed Yes | 1c | 10,300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…a0c0backed Yes | 1c | 9,920$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 9,437$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452e…6191backed Yes | 1c | 6,650$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 1c | 6,203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…00eebacked Yes | 1c | 5,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…4a61backed Yes | 1c | 5,095$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…051fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,027$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,991$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 4,338$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 1c | 4,099$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,995$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 1c | 3,610$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abc…cdb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,510$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.