Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6137a0c37d45922e03c2e32b0698885ac8a8666761c0be5765420b572a2dd325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,766$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 6c | 1,962$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 1,837$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked No | 76c | 1,476$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…e2f8backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 26c | 859$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.56 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 27c | 752.71$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 29c | 716.34$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.69 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 16c | 698.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 20c | 627.88$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 15c | 507.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 4c | 461.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 15c | 370.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 346.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed No | 78c | 318.49$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d333backed Yes | 4c | 307.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed No | 72c | 278.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed No | 75c | 226.72$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…4ca3backed Yes | 28c | 206.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 22c | 199$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 72c | 185.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 143.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 17c | 130.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…47e9backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked No | 74c | 96.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 20c | 96.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…fb64backed Yes | 28c | 89.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 71c | 48.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…6153backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2d…a277backed Yes | 28c | 36.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-19 times this week?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-44 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 45-49 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70 or more times this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.