Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 40-44 times this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a370bd36699150ab5674b7b8228842c12d676e0d7c335ab9a74db06565301d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,735$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 4c | 980.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 9c | 866.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 814.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 9c | 779$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 9c | 554.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 9c | 549.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 10c | 501.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…5b1ebacked Yes | 11c | 356.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 9c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 14c | 243$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 10c | 183.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 11c | 134.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 40-44 times this week?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-19 times this week?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 45-49 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70 or more times this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.