Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116e912824784c0b34940c50676d019b775faaf20f2d0301eed0dc3874228962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,870$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 12c | 2,162$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.33 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,490$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 1,422$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 1,306$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 42c | 1,286$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.38 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,206$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.82 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked No | 68c | 1,070$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 43c | 894.95$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 11c | 400.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 22c | 358.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…4ca3backed Yes | 19c | 314.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed No | 72c | 293.85$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…fb64backed Yes | 43c | 254.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 35c | 234.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…0482backed Yes | 48c | 228.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 42c | 215.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…357cbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked No | 63c | 199.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 47c | 190.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 10c | 179.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Yes | 45c | 171.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 45c | 166.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…46e1backed No | 69c | 145.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 21c | 145.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 42c | 128.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f2…1420backed Yes | 36c | 122.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…a8bcbacked Yes | 13c | 118.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed No | 59c | 118.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 48c | 111.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 20c | 110.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 31c | 105.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 28c | 96.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55d…aa5cbacked Yes | 29c | 95.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +929.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 14c | 91.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Yes | 47c | 85.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…cb38backed Yes | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…9695backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…e6e7backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 51c | 29.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…cd90backed Yes | 37c | 27.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 26.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 59c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e3…bccebacked No | 63c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times this week?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-19 times this week?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-44 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 45-49 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70 or more times this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.