World Politics · resolved market
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54223c75f0b8675afaccc099f9cf21fb8877a4f3b72c1064f6d284ef8723fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 67c | 4,153$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.62 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 27c | 3,959$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.68 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 19c | 1,924$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.84 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 10c | 1,698$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 10c | 971.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 13c | 965$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 13c | 956$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…a054backed No | 11c | 947.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 13c | 932$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…fcf5backed No | 4c | 771.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 675.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.24 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 10c | 649.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 9c | 622$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed No | 9c | 588$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed No | 9c | 577$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…6e9cbacked No | 29c | 553.44$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 4c | 546.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 478.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…fd96backed No | 21c | 410.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 361$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6c00backed Yes | 80c | 340.03$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 339.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked No | 28c | 320.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…a8bbbacked No | 5c | 320.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 6c | 302$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…505abacked Yes | 33c | 298.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…3359backed No | 50c | 180.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 18c | 180.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…a6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 174.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…7065backed No | 12c | 170.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 8c | 164.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 33c | 153$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…ebcdbacked No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 146.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 12c | 145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 54c | 113.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 102.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…5ddfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 78c | 99.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 85.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 59c | 85.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 61c | 75.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…87dabacked Yes | 72c | 69.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 21c | 69.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 17c | 59.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 78c | 52.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 75c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 43.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 33c | 43.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 34c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…8e96backed No | 50c | 25.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 22.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes | 52c | 19.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.