World Politics · resolved market
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92b0cd8f8750acb5718192327ddcb7d9caf56b519f2aecb3b24ef3dbc976253d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 2c | 6,490$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…15b4backed Yes | 5c | 5,656$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…a054backed Yes | 7c | 5,124$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 8c | 4,752$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.55 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…6e9cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,996$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed Yes | 8c | 1,715$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…fcf5backed Yes | 6c | 1,565$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…7065backed Yes | 4c | 1,538$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 2c | 1,405$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…e741backed Yes | 3c | 1,310$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed No | 18c | 1,258$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.82 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…ab14backed Yes | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,169$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Yes | 19c | 1,067$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595f…9d4dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,023$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 71c | 975.75$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.5 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 5c | 951.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 36c | 666.59$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 584.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…e3e6backed Yes | 18c | 559.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08a…9213backed Yes | 9c | 556.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…b4c0backed Yes | 18c | 549.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc38c…1e90backed Yes | 23c | 503.05$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98f…80f1backed Yes | 9c | 435.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…6af7backed Yes | 28c | 402.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f85…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 401.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 390.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 17c | 370.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bc…8613backed Yes | 10c | 361.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 336.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f76…1688backed Yes | 18c | 316.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…8e96backed Yes | 33c | 299.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…ebcdbacked Yes | 12c | 292.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…5d6dbacked Yes | 18c | 292.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 269.23$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 69c | 266.38$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 32c | 260.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…b8b0backed Yes | 79c | 253.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa169…e440backed Yes | 35c | 158.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…ecbebacked Yes | 16c | 128.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 62c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…eaa2backed Yes | 58c | 106.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 97.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…bde6backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Yes | 45c | 78.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 28c | 75.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 70.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 58.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 48c | 56.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7b…d5d9backed Yes | 26c | 52.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…08debacked Yes | 64c | 38.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 35c | 33.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…2df8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 56c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…a8a5backed Yes | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.