Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15becddf54ae2acc0807253967fd2b011a1d9446cb9e9bbc70e32c9ceaeb773a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $702,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $734,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa62…dfacbacked No | 0c | 230,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b9…6961backed No | 0c | 109,917$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…5c22backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeda2…802bbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ed…1619backed Yes | 25c | 16,472$4,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,298.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes | 26c | 14,724$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,823.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 72c | 14,500$10,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,419.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 46c | 10,819$4,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,843.62 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 38c | 10,626$4,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,585.98 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 48c | 10,400$4,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,947.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 74c | 10,308$7,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,647.99 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 47c | 8,830$4,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,659.75 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 53c | 8,105$4,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,332.49 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…dcd8backed No | 61c | 6,357$3,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,868.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 59c | 6,145$3,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.82 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 67c | 5,823$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.3 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 42c | 4,950$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 4,513$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540.83 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 63c | 4,406$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.06 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 75c | 4,021$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…9f03backed No | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Yes | 36c | 3,666$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed No | 69c | 2,831$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,539$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 22c | 2,500$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…c984backed Yes | 44c | 2,215$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 60c | 2,000$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 28c | 1,200$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.2 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 68c | 1,025$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.94 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…0d28backed No | 57c | 1,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 40c | 875.05$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.33 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…e554backed No | 39c | 834.96$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed No | 53c | 567.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed No | 67c | 500$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 46c | 500$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 50c | 493.88$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.67 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…7457backed Yes | 67c | 441.49$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 48c | 418.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…cadabacked Yes | 73c | 411.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 65c | 398.05$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…8406backed Yes | 51c | 392.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.93 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 38c | 377.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…e648backed Yes | 74c | 352.9$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked No | 66c | 349.07$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 42c | 337.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b6…9adfbacked No | 77c | 320.18$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 63c | 317.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 61c | 303.34$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.39 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 34c | 297.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 17c | 290$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 71c | 250.15$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…faa0backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 54c | 235.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 61c | 197.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…aed2backed Yes | 51c | 175.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked Yes | 6c | 160$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +600.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 39c | 154.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 67c | 150.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f0…1552backed No | 71c | 141.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 28c | 140.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 52c | 138.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 16c | 135.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217b…bfcdbacked Yes | 38c | 132.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…1e20backed No | 73c | 115$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed Yes | 52c | 110.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked Yes | 47c | 107.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 48c | 104.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 32c | 103.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 52c | 96.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 44c | 90.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 53c | 76.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 58c | 73.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 59c | 64.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…ef9bbacked No | 59c | 63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…b816backed Yes | 53c | 56.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 49c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…fd4bbacked Yes | 66c | 49.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…12a9backed Yes | 65c | 45.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 56c | 44.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…2574backed Yes | 50c | 42.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…c36cbacked No | 78c | 41.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ee…92d8backed Yes | 50c | 40.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 55c | 37.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…49d1backed No | 55c | 36.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…b508backed Yes | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +505.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…13d3backed Yes | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6a…61f9backed Yes | 51c | 23.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…2be5backed No | 70c | 23.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…77f0backed Yes | 52c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…7ff7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…dc95backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…e4d2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…4c6dbacked No | 79c | 18.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.