TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$560,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$544,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbe4e…c06fbacked Yes17c86,194$14,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,425.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No75c62,471$46,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,579.911450%7 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes34c21,855$7,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,458.7215561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x71b2…307dbacked Yes39c11,400$4,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,903.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes30c10,632$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,489.5658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes30c10,259$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,204.1455032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No60c9,997$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,998.4312025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc037…7240backed No58c8,562$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.381457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes35c8,115$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,308.041353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53df…e06abacked Yes26c8,115$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,014.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+93.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79f8…9f03backed No68c7,763$5,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,312.211850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9b…f652backed No42c6,377$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.498231.7%26 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes23c5,922$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,555.4137745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd60c…6d3ebacked No79c5,000$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ba…c0eebacked No66c4,855$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.32680.8%21 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed No54c4,761$2,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.2919439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb3…92e2backed No71c4,609$3,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,253.691478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+59.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5763…1c22backed No76c4,566$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.691947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes7c4,286$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,985.71832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd1…2365backed Yes73c4,115$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.231060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes5c4,061$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.541330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+123%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes41c3,918$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.1787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked No75c3,548$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a6…06b7backed No36c3,389$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9082…e0a7backed Yes27c2,444$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.9911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes5c2,345$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,218.379913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes11c2,313$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.9610315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…76a5backed Yes46c2,020$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3330…7803backed Yes5c2,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+400%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No52c2,000$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04210545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes18c1,500$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.271338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No19c1,498$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.44654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe393…7158backed Yes7c1,463$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,369$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.391,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4552…0333backed No44c1,269$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.483441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc4…3075backed No73c1,246$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.33650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa51…7996backed Yes16c1,235$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+208.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes16c1,226$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.345324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes52c1,152$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.632123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes20c1,075$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.753023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No70c1,003$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes17c1,000$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad45…b8c9backed No17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85cf…51e8backed Yes10c982$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8822412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43da…7457backed Yes53c934.88$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.97366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1021…e648backed Yes67c876.06$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.83683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick42cpaid+107.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Yes29c874.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.131346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x501b…2c19backed Yes19c861.25$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.89520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf368…873abacked No70c695.3$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.28850%4 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No62c689.76$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.651963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x120d…710ebacked Yes9c489.22$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.2580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+600.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No11c430$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9921236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked No48c420.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808c…b508backed Yes10c400.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+505.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.48625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Yes52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+62.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…ba94backed Yes26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd805…52c2backed No80c375$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005446.3%25 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No59c341.4$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8724654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No69c336.3$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.547357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x291b…0cbcbacked No59c336.11$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c65…6b11backed Yes30c305.17$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x296b…a965backed Yes6c300$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.11681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+104.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x701a…1748backed Yes4c297.14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1,328.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c0…59d9backed Yes36c296.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+176.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No56c284.71$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.347642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes12c283.23$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.095318.9%10 W · 43 L-8.0wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb7f4…077dbacked Yes19c264.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+140.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02ed…6943backed No70c262.68$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1852763%17 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f29…523ebacked Yes24c248.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.631145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No71c237.12$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0446…5439backed Yes8c229.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+541%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedfc…1df1backed No57c226.48$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303871.1%27 W · 11 L+6.9wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+29.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed No55c223.47$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd310…be53backed Yes50c215.62$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.556777.6%52 W · 15 L+12.1wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+22%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd536…a218backed Yes48c209.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.89633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71f…faa0backed No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e9…5efbbacked Yes12c200$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2982…ff27backed Yes8c197.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+566.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…b631backed Yes18c194.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+449.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes31c160.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.773212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed No76c150$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.824656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes35c143.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.686041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb855…c1bebacked No75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+351.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…a8ecbacked No79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes24c126.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+95.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x652f…e2afbacked No74c125.11$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.11771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick73cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…a3e6backed Yes24c124.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.511729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed Yes50c114.86$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ac4…1e80backed Yes14c109.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+629.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed No79c101.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.483655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+16%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x79f0…f465backed No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…b6a3backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb9…b55ebacked No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed No57c99.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.63844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.