Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5115235ae1bde8258744d965a1d29a5d9d1bd70e9ab41b3ea1d12f8810907459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $560,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $544,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe4e…c06fbacked Yes | 17c | 86,194$14,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,425.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 75c | 62,471$46,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,579.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 34c | 21,855$7,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,458.72 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71b2…307dbacked Yes | 39c | 11,400$4,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,903.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 30c | 10,632$3,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,489.56 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 30c | 10,259$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,204.14 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 60c | 9,997$5,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,998.43 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 58c | 8,562$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 35c | 8,115$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,308.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…e06abacked Yes | 26c | 8,115$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,014.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…9f03backed No | 68c | 7,763$5,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,312.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 42c | 6,377$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.49 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 23c | 5,922$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,555.41 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…6d3ebacked No | 79c | 5,000$3,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 66c | 4,855$3,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.3 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 54c | 4,761$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.29 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed No | 71c | 4,609$3,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.69 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed No | 76c | 4,566$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,985.71 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed Yes | 73c | 4,115$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,061$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,860.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 41c | 3,918$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.17 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked No | 75c | 3,548$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a6…06b7backed No | 36c | 3,389$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9082…e0a7backed Yes | 27c | 2,444$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 5c | 2,345$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.37 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 11c | 2,313$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.96 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…76a5backed Yes | 46c | 2,020$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…7803backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 52c | 2,000$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 19c | 1,498$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…7158backed Yes | 7c | 1,463$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,369$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.39 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 44c | 1,269$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.48 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc4…3075backed No | 73c | 1,246$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…7996backed Yes | 16c | 1,235$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +208.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 16c | 1,226$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.34 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 52c | 1,152$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.63 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 20c | 1,075$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.75 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 70c | 1,003$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 10c | 982$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…7457backed Yes | 53c | 934.88$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…e648backed Yes | 67c | 876.06$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…56cbbacked Yes | 29c | 874.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…2c19backed Yes | 19c | 861.25$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked No | 70c | 695.3$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 62c | 689.76$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked Yes | 9c | 489.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +600.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 11c | 430$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked No | 48c | 420.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…b508backed Yes | 10c | 400.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +505.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 59c | 341.4$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 69c | 336.3$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.54 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…0cbcbacked No | 59c | 336.11$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 30c | 305.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…a965backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.1 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…1748backed Yes | 4c | 297.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…59d9backed Yes | 36c | 296.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 56c | 284.71$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 12c | 283.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f4…077dbacked Yes | 19c | 264.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 70c | 262.68$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…523ebacked Yes | 24c | 248.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 71c | 237.12$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.59 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…5439backed Yes | 8c | 229.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +541%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 57c | 226.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed No | 55c | 223.47$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 50c | 215.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…a218backed Yes | 48c | 209.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…faa0backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e9…5efbbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…ff27backed Yes | 8c | 197.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…b631backed Yes | 18c | 194.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +449.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 31c | 160.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes | 35c | 143.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +351.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…a8ecbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…a388backed Yes | 24c | 126.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…e2afbacked No | 74c | 125.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…a3e6backed Yes | 24c | 124.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 50c | 114.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac4…1e80backed Yes | 14c | 109.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +629.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…5490backed No | 79c | 101.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…f465backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…b6a3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…b55ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.