Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21811d354151a4544340ba6777025f0466db086ee9f6340d86e59faeb28d8f43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,476$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 73c | 7,307$5,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 78c | 5,964$4,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.15 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed Yes | 40c | 4,988$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 9c | 4,250$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed Yes | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 75c | 3,260$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.58 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 2,746$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.32 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,062$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc2…4476backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 72c | 1,775$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.22 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,767$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed Yes | 3c | 1,724$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…e6c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,591$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…5721backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 28c | 999$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 59c | 845$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.88 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 24c | 820$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 25c | 627.58$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d8…34d4backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…d6c1backed Yes | 47c | 387.04$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…c23fbacked Yes | 28c | 384.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1366…753dbacked No | 76c | 384.62$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…e554backed No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…ea62backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…f9fbbacked Yes | 5c | 213.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…a53ebacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +600.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…8702backed Yes | 17c | 87.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…3401backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…6decbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 37c | 33.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…bec6backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed No | 74c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.