Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea2680450c889262c3c3feb0be66e347ea74e4c4b2a8aee3e3887b6b07d551e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d17…f3adbacked No | 32c | 15,676$5,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,022.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 16c | 11,500$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 45c | 9,429$4,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,284.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 68c | 8,502$5,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.62 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 39c | 7,869$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,836.86 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 63c | 6,287$3,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.41 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 43c | 6,050$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 19c | 5,763$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.58 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 63c | 5,544$3,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.24 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 33c | 5,298$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.5 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 55c | 3,670$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,500$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 64c | 1,909$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.38 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,600$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…f0b2backed No | 66c | 1,513$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 68c | 1,476$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 27c | 1,406$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.08 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…f4a5backed No | 1c | 1,003$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 30c | 1,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.03 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 42c | 706.62$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.98 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…2d31backed Yes | 57c | 511.07$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 46c | 504.1$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…ea30backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 56c | 410$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked Yes | 79c | 404.23$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 42c | 366.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 37c | 270.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3c83backed No | 75c | 266.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…e648backed Yes | 45c | 261.84$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 15c | 260$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 45c | 236.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 64c | 202.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa3…bb15backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c5…765abacked No | 37c | 185$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 11c | 182.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 51c | 177$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…0521backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 73c | 150$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72b6…9adfbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +600.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8962…4978backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…7ff7backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 63c | 83.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 66c | 60.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…7351backed Yes | 68c | 57.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…f095backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…1e20backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…d26ebacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 35c | 43.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…126ebacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…e8dfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed No | 57c | 30.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…c3d0backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…b3c3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.