Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89a8bae005fb8747791c041a0ad283373bb7a6c019e45735b9deba24016c82d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3fc…3401backed No | 1c | 30,514$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…e554backed No | 0c | 20,625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 40c | 11,650$4,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,657 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 58c | 10,266$5,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,351.12 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 58c | 9,928$5,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,141.46 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 61c | 9,914$6,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,891.44 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 63c | 6,019$3,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.5 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 34c | 5,400$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…9f03backed No | 38c | 4,765$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 65c | 4,616$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 66c | 2,705$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.4 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 36c | 2,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked No | 48c | 1,300$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 23c | 999$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed No | 34c | 899.59$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.85 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 67c | 892.02$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.8 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 34c | 882.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 66c | 877.5$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 66c | 800$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked No | 36c | 800$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 28c | 694.43$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 32c | 464$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 74c | 337.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 16c | 270$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 28c | 232$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 64c | 175$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 49c | 102.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda76…bf0cbacked Yes | 62c | 64.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed No | 36c | 62.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…6acfbacked No | 36c | 57.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…8bcdbacked Yes | 67c | 48.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 67c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95cb…2223backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c8…3922backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…97b0backed Yes | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…e8dfbacked Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.