Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x585ee9536f75297507a61569644442720caf570a7e2478e05845a60b34b04d7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $755,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $740,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $755,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71b2…307dbacked Yes | 8c | 40,000$3,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9082…e0a7backed Yes | 5c | 25,795$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 21c | 20,565$4,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,342.33 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 17c | 19,602$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,424.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…e06abacked Yes | 9c | 17,585$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 35c | 12,689$4,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,239.81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…90f3backed No | 36c | 9,942$3,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,327.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17db…5f6dbacked Yes | 33c | 8,997$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 9c | 8,802$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.16 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 7,569$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.56 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…c984backed Yes | 7c | 7,079$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…3622backed Yes | 12c | 6,341$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.56 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 74c | 6,074$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…af84backed Yes | 5c | 5,745$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 4c | 5,288$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 13c | 5,165$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.48 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 3c | 5,136$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.31 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 3c | 5,128$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 50c | 4,929$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.29 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 4,666$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.59 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 35c | 4,032$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 6c | 4,009$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe700…7005backed No | 25c | 3,998$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.84 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +6.9wins | +0.50per pick | 29cpaid | +200.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 3,740$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.48 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…2c19backed Yes | 13c | 3,733$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 73c | 3,604$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.77 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 78c | 3,475$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.83 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 6c | 3,439$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,343$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 5c | 3,174$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 41c | 2,703$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.58 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,700$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…141bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,477$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 5c | 2,152$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 55c | 1,834$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.63 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…56cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,756$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…8406backed No | 80c | 1,693$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.65 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e7…a58dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,648$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 74c | 1,645$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9768…1b82backed No | 68c | 1,541$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 7c | 1,427$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,251$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.84 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 7c | 1,006$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dac…37ddbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 65c | 974.98$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 16c | 955.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…b070backed Yes | 37c | 928.29$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…8fb3backed Yes | 8c | 900.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…5155backed Yes | 65c | 900$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 19c | 841.05$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…7d0abacked Yes | 65c | 769.95$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…e648backed No | 25c | 697.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 69c | 677.04$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Yes | 3c | 650$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ac…a767backed No | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 12c | 603.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb628…95c0backed Yes | 4c | 579.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 79c | 573.64$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 3c | 556.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…d018backed Yes | 6c | 547.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…2d31backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…7457backed Yes | 77c | 471.86$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 48c | 439.89$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 9c | 424.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…16a0backed Yes | 36c | 418.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 5c | 405$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1366…753dbacked Yes | 7c | 394.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…ef36backed Yes | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 37c | 374.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.61 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 73c | 344.86$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked No | 32c | 341.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…523ebacked Yes | 6c | 335.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f196backed Yes | 4c | 335$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…420cbacked Yes | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…18abbacked Yes | 17c | 292.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 36c | 280.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…9335backed Yes | 10c | 225.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 51c | 225$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…f6b9backed Yes | 12c | 204.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…5394backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…a5edbacked Yes | 7c | 182.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…a388backed Yes | 17c | 178.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c4…bfbebacked Yes | 7c | 178.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…c5eabacked Yes | 7c | 171.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2372backed Yes | 16c | 169.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes | 13c | 168$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 9c | 166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…b9d4backed Yes | 18c | 162.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked No | 63c | 157.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…0553backed Yes | 13c | 156.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496c…7220backed Yes | 13c | 155.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 23c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…2b74backed Yes | 8c | 150.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed No | 72c | 139.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6e…9f41backed Yes | 16c | 127.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.