Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda802aec28ee9fb26606cea20e683758f5d0a04e60132a1c6a4bbdcd4c082731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 1c | 104,914$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.17 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 33c | 13,650$4,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,521.5 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 65c | 12,553$8,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,450.81 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 51c | 10,103$5,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,928.07 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 37c | 10,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 54c | 9,334$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 40c | 9,029$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.67 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed No | 7c | 7,625$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…dcd8backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 46c | 4,611$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.17 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 55c | 4,348$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.75 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 29c | 3,002$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 57c | 2,650$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,100$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 74c | 1,800$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 72c | 1,358$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.87 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed No | 29c | 1,191$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.46 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 37c | 1,111$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.11 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed No | 33c | 1,030$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 66c | 925.2$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.48 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked No | 71c | 800$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…1b7cbacked No | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked No | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 74c | 362.39$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 11c | 317.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 68c | 238.75$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 12c | 226$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 33c | 196.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…d661backed No | 39c | 170.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c90ebacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 67c | 119.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 65c | 106$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6241…dd30backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac1…7fddbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 76c | 96.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…1224backed No | 69c | 85.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa87…8912backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8396…c4babacked No | 74c | 64.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 73cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf219…22e0backed No | 67c | 59.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…2bd0backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4e…75b2backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.