TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ff5…5155

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 58 out of 100; worst Earnings at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+91.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chiefs vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,600Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$6,400
Broncos vs. Eaglesbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,687Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$7,157.98
Giants vs. Saintsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,676Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,676.03
Vikings vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$4,877Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,877.32
49ers vs. Ramsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$740
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+284%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,190Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+34.5%+$410.71
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$3,743Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,742.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$270
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$7,987Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,986.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,758Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,757.56
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10,998Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$2,995.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$329.25
Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,430Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,429.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+175.5%+$723.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$31.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-10-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$326.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,529Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,528.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$7,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,579.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$581.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,252Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,251.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$242.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.