Champions League · resolved market
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-10-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5521f8479da844c2c52d2bd58f3e436f4d7e1d7873219ec8cb7d3fccc02dabc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 4c | 28,228$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.13 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 5c | 8,510$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.48 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…5155backed Yes | 5c | 6,527$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 4c | 5,054$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.66 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 5c | 2,086$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…91dabacked Yes | 6c | 1,781$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,226$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 5c | 930$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…2b90backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 4c | 635.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 5c | 599.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c47…05dcbacked Yes | 4c | 513.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…af8abacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904a…b6cebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…6834backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x301d…05f2backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…b59bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc8…ef9fbacked Yes | 4c | 339.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…a297backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 4c | 253$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…118dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa889…d223backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…f2cabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…1bc4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18fc…a402backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-10-01?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw?No won
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.