Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $428,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $459,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $428,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 16c | 40,647$6,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,446.32 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 16c | 29,600$4,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,736 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 15c | 22,333$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,349.96 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 14c | 22,291$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.05 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 15c | 15,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 15c | 14,518$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.15 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 15c | 13,500$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.99 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 17c | 12,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.99 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 14c | 11,518$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.55 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed No | 16c | 10,200$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 16c | 9,185$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.68 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 17c | 7,616$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.12 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 15c | 7,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 15c | 6,407$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.03 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 13c | 6,368$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.18 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 16c | 6,319$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.04 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 16c | 6,314$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 14c | 6,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 16c | 5,500$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.98 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 17c | 3,050$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed No | 17c | 3,040$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 15c | 2,970$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.49 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed No | 17c | 2,910$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked No | 15c | 2,762$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 16c | 2,498$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed No | 15c | 2,131$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 221 | 47.5%105 W · 116 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 16c | 1,830$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.26 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 16c | 1,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 9c | 1,448$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 17c | 1,435$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.95 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 16c | 926.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 15c | 826$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 15c | 803.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 17c | 780.59$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 6c | 752.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 19c | 657.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 16c | 611.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 17c | 599.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 6c | 524.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked No | 17c | 516.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 12c | 497.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked No | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 72c | 349.8$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 203 | 43.3%88 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 12c | 307.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6682…8c3fbacked No | 17c | 275$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 16c | 215.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…94b0backed No | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 13c | 142.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…efa6backed No | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 15c | 129$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 13c | 115.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 14c | 112.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…4067backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 16c | 88.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 18c | 64.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…7643backed No | 17c | 61.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-10-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.