TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Broncos vs. Eagles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Broncos, Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,180,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,496,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,180,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 517 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Eagles67c760,078$509,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509,252.148344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Broncos33c303,906$100,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203,713.413259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Broncos29c233,848$66,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166,960.3922548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Eagles48c163,218$78,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,734.947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02fc…2c31backed Broncos33c126,100$41,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,4871258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Eagles67c120,000$80,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,40012352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Broncos31c85,895$26,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,481.2210566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Broncos33c56,434$18,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,743.117035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Broncos33c44,551$14,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,849.165048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Broncos33c41,690$13,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,932.4116226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Broncos28c39,067$11,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,981.3914351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Eagles68c37,063$25,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,202.9818650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Broncos33c30,982$10,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,757.9714450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Broncos29c27,648$7,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,758.2341851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Eagles72c24,499$17,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,641.259359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Broncos33c20,000$6,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,449.98959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Broncos38c18,379$6,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,477.3361148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Eagles66c17,500$11,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,55012843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Eagles68c16,712$11,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,364.443773%27 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Broncos33c15,377$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,302.78520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5822…629cbacked Eagles68c14,700$9,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,995.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-70.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Broncos23c14,659$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,335.2720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Broncos34c14,476$4,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,554.3910552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Eagles78c14,288$11,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,094.885472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Broncos57c14,282$8,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,168.7331848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…5155backed Broncos34c10,845$3,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,157.98560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+91.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Broncos32c10,537$3,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,164.873036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles66c10,112$6,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,624.1283147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Eagles66c10,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0344…a65ebacked Eagles68c10,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,800540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos33c10,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,70051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Eagles67c10,000$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.995446.3%25 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Eagles67c10,000$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.953452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…87c7backed Eagles67c9,605$6,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,435.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Broncos33c9,091$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,090.9111649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked Eagles62c9,046$5,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,621.751637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Broncos13c8,490$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,386.8524551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Eagles59c8,464$5,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,014.3129356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Broncos21c8,024$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,306.4968446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Broncos32c8,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,439.878343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Broncos16c7,668$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,403.664247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Eagles68c7,575$5,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,116.4953348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Broncos36c6,886$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,386.247557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Broncos31c6,387$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,389.1618140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Eagles67c6,271$4,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,173.8814757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Eagles46c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Eagles66c5,588$3,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,688.0827339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Broncos59c5,435$3,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.3519235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Eagles68c5,070$3,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.8230446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos36c5,051$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.244652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Eagles57c5,031$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,87817548%84 W · 91 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos32c5,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.9924957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Broncos33c4,965$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,344.0741248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Broncos32c4,615$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.4837350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b13…cd27backed Broncos33c4,220$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Eagles67c4,000$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6909952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Eagles67c3,979$2,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,653.8314951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Eagles65c3,621$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.3313450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Eagles69c3,614$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50014445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Broncos50c3,553$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.6931056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Eagles65c3,541$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.87346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos50c3,422$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.0560049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fef…5840backed Eagles61c3,299$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.182445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Eagles52c3,126$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.2850242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Eagles68c3,087$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0993458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0099…b070backed Broncos32c3,078$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+133.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0431…6088backed Broncos33c3,030$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.32142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7816…ce35backed Eagles66c3,030$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007963.3%50 W · 29 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Eagles66c3,030$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a48…8562backed Eagles68c3,001$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.821540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Broncos33c3,000$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.9820646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Eagles67c2,985$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d1…f3a9backed Eagles68c2,941$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Eagles18c2,810$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9a…5b99backed Eagles66c2,800$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.63360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Broncos62c2,700$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.736550.8%33 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Broncos41c2,587$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.4564747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Broncos33c2,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6752556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Eagles68c2,500$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.978648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Broncos33c2,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6752653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Broncos33c2,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6752161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc903…9f8fbacked Broncos33c2,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Broncos32c2,400$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.8422450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e51…0548backed Broncos33c2,288$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…9982backed Broncos33c2,200$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+129.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x726f…f876backed Broncos33c2,075$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Eagles1c2,074$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.814311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Broncos29c2,068$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.375719.3%11 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Eagles77c2,046$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.531127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick62cpaid-57.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Broncos33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3401172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+72.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Eagles16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3204131.7%13 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+86.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Eagles19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3804542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f6…0b51backed Broncos34c1,988$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.241241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd622…c02dbacked Eagles21c1,926$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Eagles67c1,898$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.851764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+46%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x87de…75dbbacked Eagles67c1,857$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Broncos32c1,836$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.7424738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf680…63eabacked Eagles68c1,700$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Eagles80c1,700$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3578550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Broncos68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4805160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.