NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fa2c2a19abf1a88af88cf9d79961a2f7ce1e5cda4d006cb6ee0b11620c6ee33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Eagles, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Eagles | 51c | 29,948$15,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,422.99 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Eagles | 51c | 27,452$14,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,064.71 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Broncos | 47c | 27,000$12,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,279.98 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Broncos | 49c | 18,878$9,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,638.19 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Broncos | 49c | 16,167$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,166.67 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Eagles | 54c | 15,181$8,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,197.64 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…dedfbacked Eagles | 52c | 4,990$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Broncos | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos | 48c | 1,389$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.24 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Broncos | 52c | 1,000$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Eagles | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Eagles | 54c | 644.82$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Broncos | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Eagles | 47c | 445$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Eagles | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Eagles | 52c | 349$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Broncos | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Broncos | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Eagles | 53c | 254.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Eagles | 52c | 249.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca7…67eabacked Eagles | 54c | 244$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Broncos | 48c | 210.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Eagles | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Eagles | 45c | 202$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Eagles | 52c | 200.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Broncos | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Broncos | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Eagles | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c96…abc5backed Eagles | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Broncos | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos | 45c | 153.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Eagles | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Eagles | 53c | 124.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Eagles | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed Eagles | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Eagles | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Eagles | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…c02dbacked Eagles | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Eagles | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Eagles | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Eagles | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…5874backed Eagles | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Eagles | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Eagles | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Eagles | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Broncos | 47c | 32.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…0f2dbacked Eagles | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Eagles | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Eagles | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…851dbacked Eagles | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)this page
- Broncos vs. EaglesBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-10.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-13.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.