NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e7c559ddebbb5f9214ae036948a626a24fb23b92adaf82b36d11dd7f001b341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Eagles, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Eagles | 47c | 77,754$36,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,894.19 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked Broncos | 53c | 53,973$28,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,367.23 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Broncos | 52c | 33,862$17,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,208.87 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Eagles | 48c | 9,375$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.99 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Eagles | 47c | 9,066$4,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,261.02 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Broncos | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos | 53c | 6,040$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.35 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Eagles | 47c | 5,160$2,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.93 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked Broncos | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Broncos | 52c | 1,707$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.36 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Broncos | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Eagles | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Eagles | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Broncos | 51c | 762.84$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.79 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Broncos | 54c | 441.9$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Broncos | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…6af9backed Broncos | 53c | 386.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Broncos | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Eagles | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Broncos | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Eagles | 47c | 278.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Broncos | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Broncos | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Eagles | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Broncos | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be9…33a2backed Broncos | 52c | 141$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Broncos | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Eagles | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…98f9backed Broncos | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Eagles | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab7…cbc3backed Broncos | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Eagles | 48c | 92.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…24e8backed Eagles | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…ce38backed Eagles | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Broncos | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…3e29backed Broncos | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50cd…3477backed Eagles | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…4d20backed Eagles | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Broncos | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Broncos | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Broncos | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Broncos | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Broncos | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…df85backed Eagles | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Broncos | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)this page
- Broncos vs. EaglesBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-10.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-13.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.