World Politics · resolved market
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e8cf5236902cf7dfe0fb7e7a148e6ddc4060b50f08e2f16034eaeae5a2017e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $582,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 28,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 26,546$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 3c | 12,629$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,277.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +685%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,601$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 0c | 9,820$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…290ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,615$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…1c46backed No | 36c | 8,224$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 66c | 7,625$5,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46c…9633backed Yes | 2c | 7,536$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 1c | 7,434$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…0f7ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,845$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 69c | 6,665$4,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,605.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ca…2bbcbacked Yes | 61c | 6,572$3,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,985 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…293dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,551$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5791…5816backed Yes | 66c | 5,639$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,741.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 64c | 5,476$3,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,529.26 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked Yes | 72c | 5,160$3,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,707.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 2c | 5,143$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,793$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 64c | 4,085$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…bc2dbacked Yes | 71c | 4,015$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 3,804$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.28 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked Yes | 75c | 3,782$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…27f1backed No | 40c | 3,768$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 19c | 3,749$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,027.39 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,615$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 3,500$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.6 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1b…609abacked Yes | 68c | 3,438$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,398$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…62cdbacked Yes | 62c | 3,282$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 69c | 3,217$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.61 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…f2ecbacked Yes | 2c | 3,073$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…2bbfbacked Yes | 65c | 2,709$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 25c | 2,693$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.4 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 76c | 2,187$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.26 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab9…beb5backed Yes | 70c | 1,989$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes | 79c | 1,870$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 66c | 1,800$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…e7fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,740$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 64c | 1,722$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 66c | 1,707$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.78 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 3c | 1,700$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.5 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,693$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 71c | 1,683$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.35 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a8…7e95backed Yes | 61c | 1,641$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 27c | 1,627$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.48 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 37c | 1,610$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,550$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Yes | 67c | 1,492$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…2809backed Yes | 68c | 1,467$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 74c | 1,453$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…4d05backed Yes | 78c | 1,448$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 78c | 1,443$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.76 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 25c | 1,365$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.83 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f00…b433backed No | 21c | 1,349$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…5461backed Yes | 75c | 1,312$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9116…c347backed Yes | 67c | 1,274$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Yes | 61c | 1,255$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 63c | 1,245$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…cbe1backed Yes | 77c | 1,202$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…8686backed Yes | 80c | 1,200$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…6374backed Yes | 10c | 1,161$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4d…4b3fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,119$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…1c19backed Yes | 79c | 1,090$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…570dbacked No | 30c | 1,073$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…804bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,060$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…9686backed Yes | 72c | 1,040$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 67c | 999.99$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 53c | 997.9$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.47 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 69c | 982.67$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.38 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 969.43$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.29 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 28c | 967.26$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.95 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 941.64$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.31 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 62c | 913.36$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…357ebacked Yes | 1c | 885.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 31c | 885.51$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.35 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 66c | 867.99$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.2 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 60c | 859.17$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.35 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 829.36$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.49 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked Yes | 78c | 811.6$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 61c | 800$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 789.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.74 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5b…bf57backed No | 35c | 771.19$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 36c | 747.42$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Yes | 79c | 737.79$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…bb52backed Yes | 71c | 715.09$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 37c | 713.46$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.72 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac2…4fcfbacked Yes | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 62c | 702.87$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.65 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…c66fbacked Yes | 73c | 700$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…2759backed Yes | 61c | 700$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…3055backed Yes | 71c | 689.85$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…d541backed Yes | 71c | 677.83$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked No | 29c | 674.62$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 55c | 649.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?this page
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?Yes won
- Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yōko Kamikawa be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?No won
- Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.