World Politics · resolved market
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec9ed16526db10f57b87b1863dfc9289b411060fa50d0e5edaa77b8f59659af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $375,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 65,830$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 44,100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Yes | 0c | 37,358$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 0c | 18,370$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…cbe1backed Yes | 1c | 16,691$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 0c | 16,326$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…d385backed Yes | 1c | 15,121$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,187$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 1c | 6,999$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 0c | 5,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,963$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…c9fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,807$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9b…b6aabacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 0c | 3,417$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,887$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…bcd4backed Yes | 0c | 2,293$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…732abacked Yes | 1c | 2,150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 2c | 1,970$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 1c | 1,063$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…fea9backed Yes | 3c | 726.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…2ef5backed Yes | 3c | 672.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…9429backed Yes | 3c | 552.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…6374backed Yes | 2c | 547.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…baccbacked Yes | 3c | 468.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +154.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?this page
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?Yes won
- Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yōko Kamikawa be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?No won
- Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.