World Politics · resolved market
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf3250b715180ff9eaaec58b21c0f0908bee87387d9d2c1ede982205e80070df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $420,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 43,321$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.64 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 4c | 19,268$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.62 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 0c | 15,754$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 1c | 14,605$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,394$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…cbe1backed Yes | 1c | 14,307$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…a4cabacked Yes | 4c | 14,136$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…612cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,488$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +309%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…5c11backed Yes | 9c | 11,524$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 5c | 11,143$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.75 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 10,204$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…c9fdbacked Yes | 1c | 9,650$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Yes | 4c | 8,924$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 0c | 8,004$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…cf4dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,777$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 6,750$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.1 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 0c | 6,633$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 3c | 6,041$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,749$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…2081backed Yes | 18c | 4,366$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…c921backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…6e54backed Yes | 13c | 3,919$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,856$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a94…a136backed Yes | 8c | 3,612$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00c…3802backed Yes | 5c | 3,605$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…732abacked Yes | 1c | 3,316$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…8e12backed Yes | 5c | 3,212$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…dd27backed Yes | 8c | 3,119$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da8…4c90backed Yes | 11c | 2,761$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 13c | 2,500$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 9c | 2,265$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…aa14backed Yes | 5c | 2,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,009$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…b37bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,832$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,785$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…6374backed Yes | 2c | 1,760$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 15c | 1,695$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.84 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…74efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,685$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 4c | 1,554$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 5c | 1,448$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…9b03backed Yes | 1c | 1,443$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,417$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…1c46backed Yes | 17c | 1,276$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…570dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,170$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x390d…350bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,106$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 16c | 1,042$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,026$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…8873backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…1cb6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…9008backed Yes | 14c | 918$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 4c | 885.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…c14dbacked Yes | 4c | 816.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…8c23backed Yes | 5c | 806.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 18c | 759.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…4ecfbacked Yes | 4c | 745$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 10c | 727.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 12c | 710$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 7c | 639.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…75a1backed Yes | 3c | 575.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…5e04backed Yes | 11c | 558.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…883fbacked Yes | 3c | 550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…4598backed Yes | 18c | 548.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328b…a089backed Yes | 5c | 540.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…bdcbbacked Yes | 7c | 509.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +387%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d0…4427backed Yes | 10c | 454.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 16c | 449.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 14c | 425$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…2ef5backed Yes | 5c | 402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d4debacked Yes | 8c | 399.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 11c | 395.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…f8a3backed Yes | 6c | 393.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 380.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 25c | 375$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes | 14c | 370$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 10c | 367$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Yes | 18c | 333.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1b…6371backed Yes | 32c | 329.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…5fa4backed Yes | 5c | 324$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…a530backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780e…54b4backed Yes | 7c | 277.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 18c | 263.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…aa31backed Yes | 12c | 256.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f13…b9a2backed Yes | 13c | 256.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…ca7dbacked Yes | 6c | 252.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…05afbacked Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 9c | 249.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ae…2f9abacked Yes | 9c | 226.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 5c | 215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf929…2487backed Yes | 10c | 214.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…6e41backed Yes | 24c | 211.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?this page
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?Yes won
- Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yōko Kamikawa be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?No won
- Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.