World Politics · resolved market
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce295bc26fb49a30737aba33d7333b719b28408a5a053bcf6b6c85d03cd5c3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,285,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,420,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,285,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 570 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 33c | 152,611$50,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,033.76 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a94…a136backed No | 5c | 98,286$4,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,648.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 57c | 73,615$41,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,665.46 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 0c | 56,442$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +685%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 74c | 43,043$31,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,873.42 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 37,434$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.9 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 37,402$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.47 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked No | 3c | 34,489$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…a83bbacked No | 68c | 29,400$19,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,991.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…3874backed Yes | 49c | 23,759$11,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,187.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked Yes | 61c | 20,418$12,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,056.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked No | 10c | 20,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…27f1backed Yes | 44c | 15,705$6,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,770.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed No | 14c | 15,072$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…6f8bbacked Yes | 32c | 14,638$4,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,965.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…b482backed No | 12c | 13,963$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…fd21backed No | 10c | 13,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 12,261$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.1 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 4c | 12,243$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 31c | 11,121$3,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,481.27 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…d611backed No | 12c | 10,258$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf44…3a96backed No | 61c | 10,209$6,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,204.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Yes | 56c | 10,187$5,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,442.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…7b81backed Yes | 35c | 9,609$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,262.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 40c | 9,493$3,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.77 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…5666backed No | 1c | 9,136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 26c | 8,722$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,437.92 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b8…9019backed No | 10c | 8,416$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…a311backed Yes | 48c | 8,220$3,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,251.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…c921backed Yes | 30c | 8,192$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,708.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 7c | 7,847$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 9c | 7,666$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.95 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x628f…d10cbacked No | 14c | 7,182$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb709…9705backed No | 14c | 7,132$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab9…beb5backed Yes | 28c | 7,084$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,083.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…ee7abacked No | 72c | 6,976$5,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,045.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7073…3c66backed Yes | 16c | 6,088$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,088.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +508.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed No | 73c | 6,032$4,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,408.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,906$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked No | 9c | 5,801$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…804bbacked Yes | 24c | 5,788$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,374.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…a03ebacked No | 29c | 5,642$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Yes | 23c | 5,473$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,204.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ac…9f0abacked Yes | 20c | 5,433$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,329.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +392.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…b8c6backed Yes | 68c | 5,288$3,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked No | 70c | 5,276$3,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,704.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed No | 4c | 5,275$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 26c | 5,170$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,836.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…a303backed No | 0c | 5,133$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked No | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked No | 15c | 5,000$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 4,808$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.31per pick | 15cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 20c | 4,692$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,765.54 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b4…c559backed Yes | 21c | 4,653$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,673.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…612cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,630$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,063.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +309%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 22c | 4,401$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.06 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 71c | 4,400$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,141.99 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Yes | 41c | 4,200$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 52c | 4,050$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 12c | 4,047$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.16 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed No | 7c | 4,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d9d0backed Yes | 28c | 3,775$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +259.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 19c | 3,720$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…8686backed Yes | 71c | 3,675$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 51c | 3,581$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.61 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 69c | 3,376$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed No | 14c | 3,352$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…f7bdbacked No | 1c | 3,300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f00…b433backed No | 1c | 3,236$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 3,224$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.98 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…e00bbacked No | 78c | 3,205$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…5b07backed No | 74c | 3,159$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 3,009$2,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.06 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6431…3542backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aeb…32f5backed Yes | 16c | 2,981$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +532.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 12c | 2,802$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a331backed Yes | 37c | 2,728$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 27c | 2,663$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 1c | 2,606$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed No | 66c | 2,506$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked No | 20c | 2,497$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…570dbacked Yes | 33c | 2,488$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…6812backed Yes | 37c | 2,483$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…cbe1backed No | 13c | 2,470$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…b11fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,438$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…2081backed No | 2c | 2,349$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 6c | 2,313$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 6c | 2,295$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.65 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 30c | 2,289$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.73 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 3c | 2,275$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…8e12backed No | 10c | 2,268$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d7…00c9backed Yes | 30c | 2,268$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +230.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 79c | 2,237$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.76 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 6c | 2,227$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 28c | 2,214$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 4c | 2,207$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…6e3bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,156$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +624.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 69c | 2,131$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?this page
- Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yōko Kamikawa be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?No won
- Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.