World Politics · resolved market
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef287820648916d90a3a715abf8648065b858c3636cf763fc581944103ec5f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $515,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $515,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 5c | 46,344$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.49 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,950$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 1c | 19,391$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,344$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b2…e801backed Yes | 0c | 18,479$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…a973backed Yes | 1c | 14,929$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 0c | 13,415$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 10,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…98d2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,457$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 8,426$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.7 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…6f3abacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,568$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 0c | 6,288$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,655$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…9b03backed Yes | 1c | 5,582$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b4…c559backed Yes | 5c | 5,458$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,451$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.62 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…4770backed Yes | 9c | 5,363$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 1c | 5,251$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 1c | 5,190$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e0…3591backed Yes | 2c | 5,124$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Yes | 6c | 4,525$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…0e3abacked Yes | 6c | 3,334$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…b8c6backed Yes | 5c | 3,170$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,023$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 3,017$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,844$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 7c | 2,778$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 2,690$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 10c | 2,683$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.58 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 0c | 2,610$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…cbe1backed Yes | 5c | 2,531$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f1…2a1abacked Yes | 4c | 2,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…50cebacked Yes | 5c | 2,204$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…804bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,140$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 8c | 2,130$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…fc1fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,075$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…ee7abacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 6c | 1,912$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,902$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5385…9b12backed Yes | 12c | 1,881$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,751$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,688$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547e…873abacked Yes | 6c | 1,664$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…8d9dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,661$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e2…a4f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,656$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 3c | 1,650$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,614$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 5c | 1,573$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,356$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…b37bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,278$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…8f93backed Yes | 3c | 1,257$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…bcd4backed Yes | 9c | 1,233$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f9…bd98backed Yes | 8c | 1,192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…e00bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d4…ec2ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,061$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,005$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f13…0c3fbacked Yes | 5c | 949.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…7e27backed Yes | 9c | 860.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…e806backed Yes | 3c | 844.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…f671backed Yes | 2c | 811.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +78%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4db…a749backed Yes | 5c | 806.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 2c | 801.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571b…34cfbacked Yes | 3c | 714.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2265…7392backed Yes | 10c | 705.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…3f3fbacked Yes | 3c | 610.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…570dbacked Yes | 7c | 604.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…381ebacked Yes | 4c | 530.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028a…fe96backed Yes | 2c | 528.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…9cd5backed Yes | 6c | 512.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcd…f033backed Yes | 5c | 506.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 4c | 497.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…a007backed Yes | 5c | 483.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…eb05backed Yes | 7c | 451.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f01…5d71backed Yes | 5c | 439.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +217.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ed…45a8backed Yes | 5c | 425.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…2303backed Yes | 6c | 424$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…f610backed Yes | 6c | 421.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…1263backed Yes | 4c | 418.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff62…9dc1backed Yes | 5c | 407.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…2561backed Yes | 6c | 407.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…41b4backed Yes | 5c | 405.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…3606backed Yes | 5c | 404.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d0…4427backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f25…cf87backed Yes | 6c | 361.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 5c | 340$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 12c | 319.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…8ab7backed Yes | 4c | 295.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…5970backed Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4df…30c8backed Yes | 8c | 250.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…4155backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…6374backed Yes | 14c | 247.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…42c4backed Yes | 8c | 229.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…df98backed Yes | 13c | 223.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d53…eb82backed Yes | 6c | 219.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?this page
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?Yes won
- Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will Yōko Kamikawa be the next Prime Minister of Japan?No won
- Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?No won
- Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.