Us Politics · resolved market
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d1bcf32e38cc291654e71c13e249972cda88bd09d4d98d504c3817e7480bab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $433,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $392,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $433,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 515 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 3c | 24,107$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 47c | 21,010$9,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,970.94 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…a760backed Yes | 16c | 18,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 11,741$3,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.74 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 19c | 10,814$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.03 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 16c | 9,593$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed No | 32c | 9,467$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,467.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 66c | 7,328$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 33c | 6,118$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 22c | 5,688$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.51 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 3,800$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.92 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 3,630$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…aee7backed Yes | 66c | 3,619$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Yes | 39c | 3,500$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 18c | 3,500$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 15c | 3,495$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.28 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,396$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.61 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked Yes | 66c | 3,290$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 47c | 3,213$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ded…8ce3backed Yes | 32c | 3,167$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +320.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 23c | 2,848$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5494…faacbacked Yes | 67c | 2,836$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…5155backed Yes | 68c | 2,585$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 51c | 2,429$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.22 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 31c | 2,428$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 66c | 2,400$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 40c | 2,328$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.35 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 37c | 2,256$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,155$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 71c | 2,124$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 21c | 2,091$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.79 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 2,038$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.78 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 74c | 2,034$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…d63fbacked Yes | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…9d3abacked Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…4327backed Yes | 37c | 2,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 49c | 2,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,824$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 22c | 1,785$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,754$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.36 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 60c | 1,675$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…e0acbacked Yes | 63c | 1,589$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 26c | 1,553$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 67c | 1,483$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 47c | 1,448$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 47c | 1,420$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.36 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…1829backed Yes | 67c | 1,355$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 23c | 1,354$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.17 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,311$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Yes | 45c | 1,309$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 30c | 1,271$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.53 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…f585backed Yes | 32c | 1,271$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…48e4backed Yes | 71c | 1,268$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 31c | 1,199$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.69 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 68c | 1,082$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 55c | 1,041$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.44 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 42c | 1,033$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,003$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.83 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 60c | 1,000$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.57 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…f35ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 31c | 964.38$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.96 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked Yes | 54c | 918.47$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 44c | 912.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 63c | 907.34$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed Yes | 56c | 895.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes | 45c | 891.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 20c | 884.05$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 49c | 880.03$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 59c | 850$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…7bb2backed No | 33c | 803.03$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +305.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 30c | 801$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 29c | 800$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…d823backed No | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…0152backed Yes | 68c | 800$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 4c | 749.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce0…8727backed Yes | 39c | 743.68$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ce…446bbacked Yes | 68c | 730$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…7516backed Yes | 68c | 730$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd89…368abacked Yes | 68c | 730$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1b…27e4backed Yes | 68c | 730$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…5033backed Yes | 53c | 724.19$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4297…6befbacked Yes | 68c | 720$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…8e8cbacked Yes | 68c | 700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04f…d932backed Yes | 68c | 700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 37c | 667.54$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 68c | 660$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 69c | 638.1$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 37c | 631.9$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.76 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes | 56c | 626.91$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?this page
- Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.