Us Politics · resolved market
Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b683466bc859cff69d826be74e68dae3b658b3518015aaafe5f8af9f273ad54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $546,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $319,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $546,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 34,421$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.84 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 0c | 34,013$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 2c | 21,347$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.3 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…8b36backed Yes | 0c | 17,867$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes | 0c | 14,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 3c | 13,593$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.89 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed Yes | 0c | 11,498$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 3c | 11,000$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.98 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…a70ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,495$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,724$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 5,224$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.85 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 5,086$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.7 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,998$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 33c | 3,793$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 16c | 1,986$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.76 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…7519backed Yes | 19c | 1,491$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 3c | 1,419$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 20c | 1,415$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…38e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 9c | 1,325$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,223$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 3c | 1,177$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 1,144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6df…c2a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,080$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 17c | 1,067$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 9c | 619$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7125…2fbcbacked Yes | 17c | 591.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 13c | 582.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 8c | 418.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Yes | 16c | 337.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 17c | 330.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 5c | 301.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…a9bdbacked Yes | 5c | 290.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 18c | 209.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 204$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…2bf5backed Yes | 10c | 199.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 198.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 175.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…e87cbacked Yes | 38c | 159.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…93e6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 68c | 132.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…97f8backed Yes | 31c | 112.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…5909backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…f22abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…816ebacked Yes | 14c | 95.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42a…bf9ebacked Yes | 19c | 88.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…c1ecbacked Yes | 14c | 85.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…14c4backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 18c | 56.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…5565backed Yes | 41c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 20c | 49.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…61b8backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?this page
- Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.