Us Politics · resolved market
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b31e7ad9f42753434a1703d157a1c8414c92b6f1ea2fa35acf6df90be9d777e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $996,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,085,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $996,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 55c | 71,931$39,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,224.87 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 39c | 34,103$13,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,226.28 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 80c | 28,116$22,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,352.53 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 70c | 25,155$17,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,452.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 23c | 15,174$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,644.09 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed No | 5c | 12,788$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.41 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 17c | 12,179$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,096.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 12,175$8,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,971.9 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 44c | 10,918$4,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,112.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 21c | 10,588$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.44 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 18c | 10,010$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,241 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 45c | 9,691$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 60c | 9,465$5,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,651.67 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…22b8backed Yes | 17c | 8,811$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,346.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +501.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 50c | 8,349$4,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,177.85 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Yes | 18c | 8,168$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,668.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 59c | 7,831$4,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 79c | 7,624$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 10c | 7,420$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes | 20c | 7,360$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,906.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +305.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 24c | 7,147$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,431.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 51c | 6,908$3,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,409.22 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 46c | 6,742$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…ad7dbacked No | 72c | 6,713$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 16c | 6,204$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,194.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 26c | 5,279$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,904.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,765.02 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 60c | 4,866$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 51c | 4,729$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…59adbacked Yes | 70c | 4,260$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 60c | 4,232$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.29 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34e…239fbacked No | 6c | 4,221$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 42c | 4,194$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.02 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 25c | 4,029$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,031.84 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 14c | 4,000$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,435.99 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 54c | 3,769$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.33 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…5ee9backed Yes | 69c | 3,734$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 21c | 3,606$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 50c | 3,551$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 29c | 3,474$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 30c | 3,435$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.3 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…4221backed Yes | 28c | 3,344$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +258.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 23c | 3,316$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 15c | 3,213$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,745.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 50c | 3,157$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.26 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 68c | 3,133$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.61 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 2,959$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.75 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea59…3b63backed Yes | 28c | 2,917$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 2,900$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.5 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 18c | 2,801$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 16c | 2,774$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 2,455$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.84 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 17c | 2,381$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…7196backed Yes | 37c | 2,365$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 51c | 2,349$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 2,181$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.35 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,153$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 39c | 2,100$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.74 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…79efbacked Yes | 23c | 2,020$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 13c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 52c | 2,000$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 29c | 2,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.99 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 33c | 1,975$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.82 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked Yes | 31c | 1,938$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,913$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,896$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 35c | 1,880$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…a5cabacked Yes | 22c | 1,856$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,849$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad37…9428backed No | 20c | 1,778$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 1,750$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 29c | 1,709$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 10c | 1,708$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,706$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 21c | 1,700$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 23c | 1,655$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 64c | 1,649$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.3 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 60c | 1,612$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…2720backed Yes | 78c | 1,599$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…c453backed Yes | 78c | 1,535$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 48c | 1,515$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.06 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed No | 38c | 1,500$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…a48abacked Yes | 67c | 1,496$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 63c | 1,475$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.89 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed Yes | 47c | 1,434$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,402$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.93 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 55c | 1,400$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.4 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 14c | 1,381$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.76 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,375$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.18 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…b5e5backed Yes | 38c | 1,313$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…aee7backed Yes | 39c | 1,278$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 43c | 1,220$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…4f78backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 63c | 1,200$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 27c | 1,197$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.96 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 30c | 1,182$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 68c | 1,181$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.57 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd81…3770backed Yes | 34c | 1,180$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?this page
- Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.