Us Politics · resolved market
Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f3dda0af0eb539eabcf5a34dc8cad9c06b0effde005ac9bfda5a02e548cad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 0c | 22,840$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,879$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 5,050$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.52 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,916$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,819$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.73 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…b508backed No | 72c | 3,472$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…68cabacked No | 68c | 3,038$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,306$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 27c | 2,252$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.03 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,181$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,179$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 78c | 1,784$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 71c | 1,744$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…94f1backed Yes | 11c | 1,731$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,692$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadc3…6371backed Yes | 2c | 1,674$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,578$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.05 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 27c | 1,419$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 78c | 1,419$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 3c | 1,361$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 20c | 1,332$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.98 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,330$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 29c | 1,329$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe915…4a53backed No | 75c | 1,316$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed No | 79c | 1,269$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed No | 75c | 1,163$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb92b…ccc2backed Yes | 4c | 1,103$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…3b83backed Yes | 9c | 1,082$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 40c | 1,011$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 995.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe654…b3fcbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 4c | 902.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 25c | 853.01$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 2c | 802.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 9c | 789.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Yes | 41c | 750$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 702.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 25c | 677.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…927dbacked Yes | 10c | 670$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 4c | 660$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…3cb8backed Yes | 15c | 613.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 72c | 598.97$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked No | 59c | 583.52$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 33c | 577.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc488…4b5fbacked Yes | 6c | 569.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…329dbacked No | 76c | 559.99$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 17c | 509.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…ad03backed Yes | 4c | 478.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…f294backed Yes | 5c | 434.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 76c | 419.03$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 17c | 413.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 16c | 400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 69c | 385$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 78c | 382.5$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…9ab7backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 23c | 371$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…f986backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 27c | 346$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 319.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…8b36backed Yes | 9c | 317.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Yes | 16c | 315.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…6cefbacked Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Yes | 23c | 298.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed No | 78c | 297.97$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 34c | 296.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 73c | 294$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…d536backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…ff0ebacked No | 78c | 272.81$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 74c | 259.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…6cc5backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 35c | 255.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3e9bbacked No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 12c | 249.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 5c | 239.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 227.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…bf49backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…893abacked Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 65c | 199.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…a102backed No | 77c | 184.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 178.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 28c | 172.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…2cb5backed No | 77c | 168.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…660bbacked Yes | 9c | 159.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…1f89backed Yes | 9c | 155.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…1fcbbacked Yes | 13c | 150.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked No | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…9206backed No | 72c | 148.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?this page
- Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?No won
- Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes won
- Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.