TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Rams

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof 49ers, Rams
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,641,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,607,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,641,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers39c305,108$118,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186,993.647738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed 49ers24c244,023$59,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184,985.247035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked 49ers21c213,716$44,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,835.383259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed 49ers21c195,766$41,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,655.3710333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed 49ers21c189,756$39,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149,907.4919553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked 49ers57c175,420$99,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,430.593767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Rams79c142,800$112,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,811.710061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Rams78c113,224$88,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,005.0412352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Rams74c91,547$68,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,155.3644652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed 49ers20c90,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,999.918959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 49ers23c79,999$18,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,899.0424652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Rams55c77,381$42,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,472.6541851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Rams80c75,927$60,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,473.0610566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Rams67c74,174$49,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,864.6913843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Rams42c69,441$29,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,491.9114351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Rams52c65,797$34,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,109.86734.3%23 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rams79c65,000$51,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,35024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed 49ers22c62,518$13,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,764.1818650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked 49ers24c60,778$14,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,155.9712144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Rams54c56,953$30,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,594.033773%27 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Rams55c52,872$29,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,124.314250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked 49ers36c52,553$19,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,370.9711445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Rams53c51,505$27,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,297.643540%14 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Rams65c50,149$32,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,690.4424551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked 49ers55c50,050$27,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,584.2222548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Rams79c50,000$39,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,499.9818156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Rams43c46,424$19,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9953138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Rams63c41,735$26,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,160.1911755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked 49ers51c40,632$20,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,955.175048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed 49ers44c34,531$15,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,304.0441947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed 49ers25c34,350$8,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,6858946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Rams19c30,556$5,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,789.2131848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Rams73c30,259$22,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,141.297657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Rams79c30,000$23,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,749.9914450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed 49ers23c29,840$6,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,969.8630743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Rams74c29,496$21,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,827.0410650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Rams71c28,450$20,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,184.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Rams48c26,509$12,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,778.294247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Rams76c24,490$18,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,645.883458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked 49ers30c21,291$6,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,005.78343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Rams67c19,952$13,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,344.3314763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rams71c18,212$12,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,916.554451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Rams36c17,779$6,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,480.5320634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed 49ers41c17,076$7,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,010.3761148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Rams42c16,786$7,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,091.569944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed 49ers39c16,736$6,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,186.143652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Rams80c16,230$12,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,983.992343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Rams79c16,000$12,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6401942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81b1…0f83backed Rams38c15,435$5,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9111225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-53.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Rams75c14,700$10,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,979.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick61cpaid-78.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Rams78c13,976$10,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,944.9841248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Rams64c12,872$8,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,238.359445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed 49ers54c11,305$6,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,166.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Rams44c10,810$4,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,756.583961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Rams43c10,457$4,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,538.5628151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x663b…6a3ebacked 49ers53c10,193$5,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.113100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 49ers36c9,138$3,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,890.5953348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Rams72c8,864$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.798247.6%39 W · 43 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked 49ers47c8,511$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,510.642680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x82fe…e95dbacked 49ers21c8,200$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,478250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick31cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Rams79c8,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.9914757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Rams67c8,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.9834349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Rams1c7,900$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rams40c7,889$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,186.7327644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked 49ers66c7,596$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Rams50c7,557$3,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,782.826245.2%28 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Rams80c7,500$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00014349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8372…09bcbacked 49ers21c7,410$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,853.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+108.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Rams48c7,095$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.474143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Rams47c7,093$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,336.814129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked 49ers54c7,047$3,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,237.219235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48b5backed 49ers21c7,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6307…fb7cbacked 49ers28c6,997$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,038.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed 49ers64c6,744$4,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Rams50c6,549$3,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,244.093948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers48c6,344$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,281.4960049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Rams50c6,130$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.6621151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x052c…404ebacked 49ers60c6,000$3,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.642050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed 49ers24c6,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,539.991931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Rams72c5,905$4,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,259.236246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Rams51c5,825$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00014445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked 49ers63c5,729$3,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.043458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0431…6088backed 49ers21c5,641$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,456.582142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Rams79c5,621$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,440.354365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed 49ers67c5,569$3,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.0310639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc993…618cbacked 49ers26c5,380$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,987.08450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+96%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed 49ers50c5,359$2,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,683.1131056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Rams42c5,265$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.577851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Rams58c5,018$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.371866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Rams79c5,000$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,95035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Rams80c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003464.7%22 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe604…d999backed Rams51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+170.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked 49ers56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9914248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Rams69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.7224351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Rams45c4,878$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Rams68c4,825$3,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,281.52850%14 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed 49ers21c4,762$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,761.91764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+46%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Rams77c4,695$3,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,611.752828.6%8 W · 20 L-7.0wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-48%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked 49ers28c4,565$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,276.9224054.6%131 W · 109 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…7465backed Rams65c4,524$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.85850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.