NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e1dc7ae75dd6de8e0a874d26e86ab50d68529d734be1f8a25ce40536d830a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof Rams, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rams | 51c | 6,221$3,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.39 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed 49ers | 49c | 5,484$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.88 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Rams | 41c | 1,947$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.9 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers | 59c | 1,763$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.99 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 49ers | 54c | 969.5$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.04 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked 49ers | 51c | 442.7$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.47 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rams | 51c | 338.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed 49ers | 46c | 279$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Rams | 33c | 166.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…0182backed Rams | 67c | 137.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Rams | 74c | 134.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed 49ers | 34c | 72.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Rams | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…44bcbacked 49ers | 53c | 34.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-1.5)this page
- 49ers vs. Rams49ers won
- 49ers vs. Rams: O/U 42.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Rams: O/U 44.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Rams: O/U 47.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Rams: O/U 50.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Rams: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: Rams (-6.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.