NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Rams: O/U 44.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc9740b0b50b5380baabaf19dc5a637212f5b2aae85f6a379671757da45bde2

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,841

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,664 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over	46c	10,398$4,746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,651.93	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over	56c	5,255$2,941 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,314.57	419	47.3%198 W · 221 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under	52c	4,164$2,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,153.57	343	49.3%169 W · 174 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Under	47c	3,189$1,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,498.87	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	53c	3,000$1,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,590	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Under	55c	2,993$1,646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,646	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	52c	2,482$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,290.65	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb511…dedfbacked Over	54c	2,222$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,022.22	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over	45c	2,200$986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,214.12	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Over	48c	2,083$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,083.33	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Under	56c	2,000$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120	131	45.8%60 W · 71 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Under	53c	1,687$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$889.06	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Over	48c	1,624$784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840.2	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Under	53c	1,520$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.6	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1e…2e41backed Under	55c	1,520$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under	40c	1,120$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.11	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	48c	1,032$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$536.64	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Under	39c	1,010$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.4	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc23…b543backed Under	52c	990$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Under	55c	908.62$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.74	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over	47c	625.76$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.65	225	48.4%109 W · 116 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Over	48c	600$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	144	50%72 W · 72 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Over	45c	599.97$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.98	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Under	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	105	37.1%39 W · 66 L	-12.5wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Under	54c	562.81$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.92	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Over	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	167	37.7%63 W · 104 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Under	54c	462.96$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	200	39.5%79 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c3…3242backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Under	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	138	45.7%63 W · 75 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Over	47c	391.05$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.85	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f58…187cbacked Under	55c	363.64$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1b…6fe6backed Over	49c	345$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.95	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x527d…2718backed Over	49c	336$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.36	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Over	46c	332.99$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.61	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under	55c	327.27$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	78	50%39 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0702…1ef8backed Over	49c	320$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8874…0b31backed Over	54c	279.15$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.15	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+4.6wins	+0.14per pick	54cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	46c	250$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…2861backed Under	55c	218.18$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1d…1236backed Under	55c	218.18$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf35e…94cabacked Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Over	47c	200$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	48c	199.99$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	104	53.8%56 W · 48 L	+8.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	47c	196$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.4	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad0b…8030backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d19…d99ebacked Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4932…032ebacked Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x646e…294dbacked Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a6…770ebacked Under	55c	181.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4355…3116backed Under	54c	150$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	88	42%37 W · 51 L	-8.2wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Under	53c	150$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-10.3wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	49c	142.86$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.86	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe73f…740bbacked Under	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f7…db24backed Under	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…fa4ebacked Under	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3418…f986backed Under	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	224	46.4%104 W · 120 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Over	48c	99.3$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.64	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	47c	96$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.36	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	33c	80$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.76	276	44.2%122 W · 154 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Over	48c	72.92$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.92	158	55.7%88 W · 70 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c82…0d7dbacked Under	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Over	48c	70.83$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.83	145	37.2%54 W · 91 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Over	51c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	205	42%86 W · 119 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	135	55.6%75 W · 60 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.25	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	47c	43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	304	42.4%129 W · 175 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1bfd…3462backed Over	48c	42.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.99	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Under	54c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	170	60.6%103 W · 67 L	+12.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4734…7ad2backed Under	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed Under	50c	37.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.99	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…d9f6backed Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	51.5%34 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	183	50.3%92 W · 91 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf135…eb06backed Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	41cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed Under	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa783…090cbacked Over	61c	21.31$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.31	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+63.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over	63c	21.16$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.83	266	60.9%162 W · 104 L	+13.0wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d78…aa7fbacked Under	54c	20.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

49ers vs. Rams: O/U 44.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event