TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,568,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,237,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,568,731 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…5204backed Yes35c141,181$48,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,269.153423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b1…48eebacked Yes10c76,311$7,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,991.69119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes12c66,449$8,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,182.382917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes17c56,571$9,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,139.623834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes22c47,624$10,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,315.754151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes53c45,485$23,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,570.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes23c40,000$9,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,607.05911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes58c39,440$22,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,471.491258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…295ebacked Yes67c38,416$25,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,625.56425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes20c34,146$6,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,462.241735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe426…9766backed Yes19c34,000$6,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,540616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes14c33,954$4,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,257.72728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes64c31,915$20,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,340.851681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes45c31,531$14,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,254.711942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes68c30,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,600333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes51c27,698$14,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,641.731533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes12c27,588$3,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,194.583855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes67c27,581$18,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,978.39560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes15c26,850$4,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,752.541942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes26c24,847$6,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,401.532123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes56c20,894$11,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,287.378953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes20c20,837$4,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,685.714820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes35c20,382$7,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,248.371241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes12c17,421$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,394.311020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes75c17,200$12,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,371.461947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes29c16,980$4,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,080.798333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe20…c8fabacked Yes51c15,794$8,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,674.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94be…aeb5backed Yes21c15,713$3,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,399.02850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e2…dfeabacked Yes70c14,714$10,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,450.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes67c14,535$9,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,735.511921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d73…bae7backed Yes68c14,352$9,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,543.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes15c14,214$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,127.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+70.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes57c13,554$7,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,816.651330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes15c13,432$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,446.599018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf034…8a19backed Yes44c13,323$5,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,400.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5293…4b34backed Yes26c13,149$3,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,723.372050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes20c13,049$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,444.94320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed Yes67c12,000$8,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,929.321020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce1a…354fbacked Yes15c11,961$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,121.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+63.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No80c11,845$9,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,439.891833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes42c11,774$4,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,881.982035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes36c11,467$4,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,318.215431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7c…9e23backed No33c11,400$3,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,76210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes61c10,780$6,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,252.83966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes70c10,519$7,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.321435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes21c10,311$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,195.082231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes14c10,300$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,855.085740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes69c10,215$7,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,142.212934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked No59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02d…98d6backed Yes13c9,592$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,321.63616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes16c9,165$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,688.293525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes74c9,000$6,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes18c9,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,379.982352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes19c8,850$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,202.9210420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes30c8,678$2,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,106.16235.5%22 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18df…f8e9backed Yes16c8,564$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,177.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+517.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf60…af2dbacked Yes17c8,091$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,750.831060%6 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+91.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes66c8,000$5,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7601172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4b0…ce37backed Yes17c7,947$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,591.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+486.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Yes22c7,600$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,907.66683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed Yes49c7,421$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,805.071250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…421dbacked Yes71c7,388$5,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.421030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f87…f277backed Yes20c7,035$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,630.43450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+86.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes49c6,841$3,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,504.8306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2306…2815backed Yes14c6,757$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,836.15540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+102.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked No79c6,719$5,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,307.740%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd484…8280backed Yes35c6,568$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,286.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked No23c6,550$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No32c6,523$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.571315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes47c6,402$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,393.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes18c6,200$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,054.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c6…01c0backed Yes14c6,199$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,309.38616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes21c6,116$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,856.291020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed Yes78c6,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed Yes20c5,953$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,787.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x674a…d582backed Yes17c5,628$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,671.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes39c5,604$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.483447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97b8…1f4fbacked Yes20c5,535$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,419.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+159.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes18c5,526$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,511.56520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes12c5,274$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,639.792611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes40c5,240$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,135.641118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked No50c5,036$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.1550%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes21c5,001$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,950.721612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ae…aa64backed Yes50c4,975$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes69c4,797$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.952231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed No46c4,771$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.442536%9 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08e5…91f9backed No35c4,767$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes75c4,734$3,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.321338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda43…b0cbbacked Yes19c4,722$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,823.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a1…6877backed Yes11c4,700$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,183250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes51c4,691$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed No27c4,545$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes51c4,543$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.821136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid-13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x472a…9033backed Yes18c4,431$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.951533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832b…5c91backed Yes52c4,385$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf9b…def7backed Yes48c4,367$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268.821020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No41c4,350$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7761643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No29c4,302$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.187017.1%12 W · 58 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No50c4,293$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.461711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-81.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Yes64c4,209$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.