TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,045,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,639,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,045,993 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes0c642,774$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.22224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c138,000$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c103,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.510420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Yes0c65,543$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc8…1928backed Yes0c59,013$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4252…0652backed Yes0c58,818$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc250…a825backed Yes0c58,728$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5406…db6ebacked Yes0c58,452$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec01…f428backed Yes0c57,873$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ee…d6e1backed Yes0c57,846$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf53…9021backed Yes0c57,755$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df2…4a59backed Yes0c57,336$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f1…f073backed Yes0c57,245$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba4…333cbacked Yes0c57,104$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ed…38d4backed Yes0c57,013$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92c…4658backed Yes0c57,013$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1e…181cbacked Yes0c56,817$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8824…b9b0backed Yes0c56,593$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b6…b844backed Yes0c56,491$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a2f…6895backed Yes0c56,329$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849e…f641backed Yes0c56,083$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…a01abacked Yes0c56,075$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5904…b08fbacked Yes0c55,989$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c40…c0bebacked Yes0c55,886$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4414…17aabacked Yes0c55,558$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2c…6b25backed Yes0c55,369$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c4…5b41backed Yes0c55,332$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa358…cb26backed Yes0c55,317$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ec…8145backed Yes0c55,311$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a5…7c7cbacked Yes0c55,254$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ea…4e43backed Yes0c54,683$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae1…8cbbbacked Yes0c54,669$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcf…d2f9backed Yes0c54,283$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9493…b03bbacked Yes0c53,881$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes2c51,544$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.84728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb678…f74dbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75fc…a53abacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94a…f99dbacked Yes0c49,430$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea01…9d73backed Yes0c49,430$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e0…9998backed Yes0c49,430$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176f…8d13backed Yes0c49,430$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…247abacked Yes0c49,430$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fa…de8bbacked Yes0c49,430$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c43,429$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.37525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4970…7d97backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf684…3684backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2588…edd0backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc085…7dc8backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b77…83c6backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…60cbbacked Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8a…4ea3backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce00…d909backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f4c…91b7backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc056…05e6backed Yes0c42,009$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes2c40,844$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.521216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f5…61cabacked Yes3c38,581$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77b…1dafbacked Yes0c38,009$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355f…4c84backed Yes0c36,370$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes0c35,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7fa…cd98backed Yes0c33,614$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes3c32,304$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.27185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-79%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes6c31,255$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.134820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes0c31,205$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes2c29,311$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.233423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes0c28,926$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes3c28,499$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.412611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…0c00backed Yes2c28,275$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.641637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes2c26,338$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes0c26,290$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c25,196$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3784…a20bbacked Yes2c23,764$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes3c22,224$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.632516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf3…a699backed Yes1c20,775$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.12611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf3…45a3backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc9…6f0cbacked Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f1…aebebacked Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa850…3c52backed Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c96…cadbbacked Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a4…3446backed Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d22…bbacbacked Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6309…f3ebbacked Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae38…da01backed Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9008…14fcbacked Yes0c19,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb3…35b8backed Yes0c17,802$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes2c16,253$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.322010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x921a…d7cebacked Yes0c15,408$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e9…dfcdbacked Yes0c15,380$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…7860backed Yes0c15,105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf749…0a0fbacked Yes0c15,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095c…d20abacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362e…92b3backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes1c14,938$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.722611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0faf…4373backed Yes0c14,550$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fdb…92a9backed Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ba…d817backed Yes0c13,759$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c13,310$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4561…59d4backed Yes0c12,518$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes1c11,810$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x308f…35cabacked Yes1c11,563$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.88812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.