Fed Rates · resolved market
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,273,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,412,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,273,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 284,837$4,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,473.83 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 3c | 128,302$3,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.18 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 1c | 91,957$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.69 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 4c | 84,760$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.54 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes | 4c | 53,238$2,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.53 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 4c | 44,224$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 11c | 41,673$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,458.33 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 41,597$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.96 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…c933backed Yes | 0c | 33,233$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 6c | 28,818$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.25 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 0c | 25,226$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed Yes | 3c | 25,000$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 2c | 24,929$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…f57fbacked Yes | 0c | 24,839$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 5c | 23,848$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.18 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a20bbacked Yes | 5c | 17,105$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 16,100$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 1c | 15,128$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 14,943$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.93 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 14,710$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 6c | 14,671$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 2c | 14,025$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.09 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…98d6backed Yes | 4c | 13,640$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 12,566$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.75 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,639$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,909$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 7c | 10,816$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 10,539$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.37 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…3299backed Yes | 3c | 10,391$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 2c | 10,155$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.86 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 2c | 9,602$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…35cabacked Yes | 2c | 8,909$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…59d4backed Yes | 3c | 8,907$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 8,728$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.71 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 5c | 8,462$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,410$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…c903backed Yes | 5c | 8,213$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 8,195$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 6,778$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.63 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 5c | 6,047$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.22 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 5,878$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.23 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,556$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…11e3backed Yes | 2c | 5,370$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 0c | 5,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes | 9c | 5,165$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 5,019$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…983bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 1c | 4,281$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 4,242$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…a22abacked Yes | 2c | 4,160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,046$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 5c | 4,029$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,024$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…07a0backed Yes | 2c | 3,797$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Yes | 1c | 3,781$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,525$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…fccdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 3c | 3,109$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 3c | 2,820$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 2,812$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…bb07backed Yes | 4c | 2,788$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…fae9backed Yes | 4c | 2,780$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…50f4backed Yes | 0c | 2,653$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba1…0d6ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 2,630$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…9f13backed Yes | 4c | 2,628$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed Yes | 3c | 2,554$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 2,487$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 3c | 2,461$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,416$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…bb00backed Yes | 4c | 2,328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,306$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…c749backed Yes | 2c | 2,239$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 5c | 2,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…44d3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb95…6da1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e4…87debacked Yes | 3c | 1,938$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f25…cf87backed Yes | 2c | 1,818$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef58…2f14backed Yes | 4c | 1,753$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…b033backed Yes | 1c | 1,712$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…4afbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,691$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…93d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,639$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 1c | 1,591$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…dfffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,532$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…fdacbacked Yes | 2c | 1,493$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 4c | 1,421$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 12c | 1,412$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,407$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.06 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,360$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2208…2115backed Yes | 14c | 1,348$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…402fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,340$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,314$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?this page
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?No won
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes won
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.