TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,273,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,412,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,273,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c284,837$4,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,473.8310420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes3c128,302$3,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.182010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes1c91,957$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.69224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes4c84,760$3,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.543423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes4c53,238$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.532611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes4c44,224$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.47728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes11c41,673$4,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,458.334820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c41,597$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.96820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0edd…c933backed Yes0c33,233$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes6c28,818$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.252516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes0c25,226$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes3c25,000$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7951216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes2c24,929$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bec…f57fbacked Yes0c24,839$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes5c23,848$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.18185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-79%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3784…a20bbacked Yes5c17,105$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.0760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c16,100$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f41…0c00backed Yes1c15,128$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.661637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c14,943$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.93783.8%3 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-94.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c14,710$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-81.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes6c14,671$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.492934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes2c14,025$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.092611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02d…98d6backed Yes4c13,640$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes10c12,566$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.758132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c11,639$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.334712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes1c10,909$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7120%0 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes7c10,816$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.73120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c10,539$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3712322.8%28 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c48…3299backed Yes3c10,391$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes2c10,155$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.86306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf3…a699backed Yes2c9,602$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.42611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x308f…35cabacked Yes2c8,909$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4561…59d4backed Yes3c8,907$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c8,728$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.71960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x322e…bae4backed Yes5c8,462$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.651926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes12c8,410$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.031020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…c903backed Yes5c8,213$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.5680%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes1c8,195$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.982711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c6,778$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.636412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes5c6,047$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.222128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes3c5,878$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.23200%0 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c5,556$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4890%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf04…11e3backed Yes2c5,370$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.14120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes0c5,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes9c5,165$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.961118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c5,019$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.886616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf35b…983bbacked Yes0c4,333$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes1c4,281$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c4,242$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.94611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-96.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa577…a22abacked Yes2c4,160$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes2c4,046$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes5c4,029$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.482352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes3c4,024$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.096235.5%22 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf2f…07a0backed Yes2c3,797$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-64.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Yes1c3,781$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,525$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.973187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0e…fccdbacked Yes0c3,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes3c3,109$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.122231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked Yes3c2,820$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes3c2,812$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.764320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f8…bb07backed Yes4c2,788$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe010…fae9backed Yes4c2,780$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5f…50f4backed Yes0c2,653$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba1…0d6ebacked Yes4c2,650$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8270%0 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes4c2,630$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.931225%3 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3831…9f13backed Yes4c2,628$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x472a…9033backed Yes3c2,554$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.891533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c2,487$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4420021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes3c2,461$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.859018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes4c2,416$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd651…bb00backed Yes4c2,328$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes2c2,306$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…c749backed Yes2c2,239$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.71010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes5c2,015$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.725740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes4c2,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes7c2,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.61119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-88.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x337e…44d3backed Yes2c2,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes2c2,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.91216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb95…6da1backed Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e4…87debacked Yes3c1,938$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f25…cf87backed Yes2c1,818$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick15cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef58…2f14backed Yes4c1,753$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b66…b033backed Yes1c1,712$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c23…4afbbacked Yes3c1,691$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab8…93d1backed Yes1c1,682$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes2c1,639$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.37737.7%29 W · 48 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb54a…c622backed Yes1c1,591$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd141…dfffbacked Yes2c1,532$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes3c1,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.292927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5b4…fdacbacked Yes2c1,493$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes4c1,421$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.481216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed Yes12c1,412$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.741717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes14c1,407$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.066829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes6c1,360$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+40.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2208…2115backed Yes14c1,348$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d1…402fbacked Yes8c1,340$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes4c1,314$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.