TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,970,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,626,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,970,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes1c361,238$4,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,321.67224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c87,551$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.02385.3%2 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b4…7eebbacked Yes0c81,832$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…0c00backed Yes6c79,246$4,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,428.121637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a44…61c5backed Yes5c64,978$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c60,590$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4610420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c60,362$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.67820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes9c56,597$5,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,131.172611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46f…8d2abacked Yes0c49,382$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x717b…55e0backed Yes0c49,382$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f5…61cabacked Yes8c47,752$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,765.350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Yes0c34,333$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5326…3071backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f2…f04ebacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…186fbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d3…c678backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…73d7backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d8…3cbdbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2971…06c5backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a1…7756backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a16…1641backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e07…0c23backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e19…9a44backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356a…58d7backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8302…3d49backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ca…c0d9backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6046…5e0fbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c06…a0ebbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc69…c49cbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78dc…f1fabacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fea…0e32backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e98…80e7backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc3…e13abacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f6…363abacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d0…4f16backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x178c…2586backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe759…74f3backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74be…c62cbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…19c3backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c82…7813backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec9…3f43backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc99…33dfbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd65…994abacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91de…652dbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2777…12d3backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b0…4f75backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…2c80backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x630c…b7ebbacked Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f00…b9d4backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8f…f984backed Yes0c31,356$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes3c27,717$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa804…a636backed Yes0c25,788$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7485…ce53backed Yes0c24,880$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3428…8206backed Yes0c23,263$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes0c22,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd0…3de7backed Yes0c21,580$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6d…b63abacked Yes6c21,540$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eff…b284backed Yes0c21,338$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes5c20,000$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0751216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…4dc0backed Yes0c19,289$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3831…9f13backed Yes5c18,955$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed Yes8c18,727$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes2c18,059$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.963026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+42.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes9c16,301$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.552516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5449…8db9backed Yes0c14,395$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af0…a984backed Yes0c13,247$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66c…aa61backed Yes3c12,570$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…051abacked Yes0c12,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc5…689cbacked Yes8c12,072$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c11,500$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.576616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes13c11,228$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes0c10,086$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308f…35cabacked Yes2c9,074$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c9,000$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.9525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes9c8,633$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322e…bae4backed Yes6c8,416$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.081926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ca…5b3dbacked Yes0c8,280$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes0c8,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes11c7,927$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.258132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c7,590$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3783.8%3 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-94.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf3…a699backed Yes1c7,500$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.22611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes1c7,120$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.65306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…4e7dbacked Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c5,800$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.143312.1%4 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-75.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes0c5,303$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes3c5,259$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.572611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a2…c3c3backed Yes0c5,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10f9…bdd1backed Yes0c5,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c5,027$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8464…8371backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735c…a77ebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c4,685$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.66412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7554…54ebbacked Yes0c4,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes2c4,081$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.53200%0 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2552…73d2backed Yes7c3,900$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes2c3,830$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eec…1a39backed Yes0c3,780$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes5c3,700$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-69%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.