Fed Rates · resolved market
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebfda84c91d3dafde3f49bd132aadc9e762b88023021806e7345cd526fc7e1fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,257,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,633,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,257,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 506 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdaeb…a2a5backed Yes | 21c | 217,805$46,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,811.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 13c | 159,838$21,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,005.42 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 9c | 101,439$9,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,568.87 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked Yes | 16c | 83,918$13,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,337.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 13c | 67,423$9,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,092.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked Yes | 14c | 59,755$8,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,426.47 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 49,630$4,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800.89 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes | 10c | 40,089$4,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,155.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 9c | 31,004$2,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885.95 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…f71abacked Yes | 5c | 26,899$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 16c | 21,807$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,531.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 9c | 20,529$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 8c | 19,771$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 3c | 18,936$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…aeb5backed Yes | 10c | 18,701$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 18,564$2,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,721.98 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 14c | 18,145$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.86 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 11c | 17,673$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.23 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes | 19c | 17,662$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 10c | 16,214$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.29 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 9c | 15,973$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.05 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 9c | 15,485$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 14c | 14,319$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.25 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 10c | 13,283$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.05 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 18c | 13,205$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.19 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…ff38backed Yes | 12c | 12,304$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed Yes | 30c | 12,249$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…36a2backed Yes | 1c | 11,632$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 75c | 11,400$8,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,834.24 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 14c | 11,135$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 11,122$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.43 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 15c | 11,054$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.45 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…0f1fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,784$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…61bbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,725$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 18c | 10,052$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes | 10c | 9,862$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 9,670$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…1382backed Yes | 13c | 9,068$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 3c | 9,000$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 15c | 8,488$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.83 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…8688backed Yes | 1c | 8,452$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 7,620$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 17c | 7,589$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 13c | 7,341$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 15c | 7,166$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 77c | 7,011$5,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.32 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…dcf9backed Yes | 11c | 5,682$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 29c | 5,460$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 8c | 5,177$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…5442backed Yes | 8c | 5,119$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…175bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…401fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,987$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 20c | 4,897$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…2f09backed Yes | 21c | 4,794$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 15c | 4,733$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,652$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.49 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…6b03backed Yes | 13c | 4,610$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 5c | 4,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 1c | 4,301$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 10c | 4,282$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.58 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…285bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,131$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes | 12c | 4,080$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 25c | 4,065$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…f660backed Yes | 4c | 3,882$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 9c | 3,864$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.64 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,838$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…8107backed Yes | 1c | 3,719$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…f030backed Yes | 1c | 3,657$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed Yes | 9c | 3,599$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 21c | 3,548$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.27 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb0…b6a0backed Yes | 10c | 3,501$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 11c | 3,500$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.52 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…c7e6backed Yes | 1c | 3,167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…0c17backed Yes | 15c | 3,130$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…833abacked Yes | 10c | 3,029$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…56acbacked Yes | 13c | 2,799$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,781$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.6 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…39a0backed Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 13c | 2,645$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.09 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed No | 76c | 2,631$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5890…1a49backed Yes | 21c | 2,583$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,549$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…03e2backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 13c | 2,324$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 12c | 2,300$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 5c | 2,249$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d1…66b4backed Yes | 10c | 2,204$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…0acdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,121$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,119$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 9c | 2,100$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 8c | 2,090$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?this page
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?No won
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes won
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.