Fed Rates · resolved market
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,906,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,934,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,906,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 13c | 162,505$21,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,627.48 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…7191backed Yes | 13c | 77,518$10,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,077.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked Yes | 24c | 72,105$17,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,470.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 14c | 70,191$9,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,772.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 54,735$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.49 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…5f8bbacked Yes | 24c | 53,642$12,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,874.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…40febacked No | 76c | 53,642$40,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,874.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes | 14c | 47,045$6,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,583.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 20c | 43,601$8,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,527.28 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…aeb5backed Yes | 12c | 43,097$5,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,006.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes | 23c | 26,610$6,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,002.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 14c | 25,292$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,463.58 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 9c | 23,499$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.66 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…0c36backed Yes | 1c | 22,029$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes | 5c | 21,855$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 5c | 21,495$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.63 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 20c | 19,591$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 20c | 18,489$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.87 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…5442backed Yes | 27c | 17,910$4,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,821.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 17,842$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 17,343$3,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,808.22 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 6c | 16,972$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 6c | 16,785$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 18c | 15,455$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.22 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 24c | 14,804$3,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,584.66 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,297$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 1c | 14,233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 27c | 13,158$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.87 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 4c | 13,133$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.66 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 23c | 11,716$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.73 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 11,266$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.1 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 76c | 10,998$8,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 17c | 10,929$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61f…8beebacked Yes | 0c | 10,889$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 3c | 10,221$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 18c | 10,212$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 10,003$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.62 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…a760backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…ae41backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…f71abacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 9,652$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.71 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked Yes | 14c | 9,621$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 26c | 9,253$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.61 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 2c | 9,253$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 8c | 8,666$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 8,443$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.48 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 25c | 8,333$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 9c | 8,246$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.56 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 1c | 8,105$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes | 19c | 8,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes | 9c | 7,337$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 7c | 7,307$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3a…9e22backed Yes | 1c | 6,859$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…03f8backed Yes | 1c | 6,635$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 6,327$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.95 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 22c | 6,163$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…c79ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,800$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 26c | 5,762$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…4093backed Yes | 1c | 5,611$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…b775backed Yes | 4c | 5,543$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 22c | 5,383$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 24c | 5,320$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.18 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…2cd4backed Yes | 0c | 5,291$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes | 23c | 5,242$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…84bfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,241$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…fd92backed Yes | 0c | 5,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 5c | 5,171$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.33 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,107$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.3 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…4f34backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 29c | 4,993$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 26c | 4,906$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.71 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 23c | 4,874$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…dcf9backed Yes | 13c | 4,683$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,638$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 4,625$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.11 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…1e59backed Yes | 3c | 4,546$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…ffd8backed Yes | 0c | 4,546$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…36a2backed Yes | 4c | 4,133$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 23c | 4,033$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 25c | 4,013$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 20c | 3,846$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…29f2backed Yes | 5c | 3,772$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 1c | 3,684$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…37f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,607$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…3e4abacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 30c | 3,293$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.82 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…550dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,229$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 9c | 3,217$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.84 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,212$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 4c | 3,106$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 20c | 3,090$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 78c | 3,020$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,963$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 23c | 2,932$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.7 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked No | 79c | 2,819$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…3c36backed Yes | 0c | 2,637$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…1f4fbacked No | 78c | 2,580$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked Yes | 16c | 2,500$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?this page
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes won
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.